Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Here are my favorite 2022 NFL futures bets ahead of the new football season.
You can also find my other favorite preseason picks here:
Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Offensive Player of the Year
Ja’Marr Chase: Offensive Player of the Year
Odds: +3000
Sportsbook: BetMGM
For years, this award often went to whoever won the MVP (often a quarterback) or to whichever running back had the best season.
However, over the past five years we’ve seen two shifts in how the award has been distributed. Yes, it’s a small sample, but these two trends feel intuitive.
First, the award has moved away from MVP winners and toward skill-position players who weren’t real MVP candidates. Only QB Patrick Mahomes won OPOY as an MVP and that was in 2018, when he had a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season in his first year as a starter. By definition, that was an outlier campaign. Essentially, voters have realized that it makes no sense to give the same person two different awards.
Second, the award has shifted away from running backs and toward wide receivers. Until 2019, the last wide receiver to win the award was Jerry Rice, in 1993. From 1996 to 2006, a running back won the award in every season but one (2004, MVP QB Peyton Manning). But since 2007, when the league started to shift away from high-volume backs and the running game, it would make sense to see more pass-game skill-position players win the award — and that’s what we’ve seen.
Over the past five years, running backs (2017 Todd Gurley, 2020 Derrick Henry) and wide receivers (2019 Michael Thomas, 2021 Cooper Kupp) have split the award at two apiece, and over the past three years, receivers have a 2-1 edge.
In the current era, I think it’s likelier than not that a non-quarterback will win this award, and for that to happen a player — in my opinion — needs to lead the league in at least two of three Triple Crown stats for scrimmage if he’s a back or for receiving if he’s a pass catcher.
- Gurley (2017): No. 1 with 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage
- Thomas (2019): No. 1 with 149 receptions and 1,725 yards receiving
- Henry (2020): No. 1 with 397 touches and 2,141 yards from scrimmage
- Kupp (2021): No. 1 with 145 receptions and 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns receiving
And all of that leads me to Chase, who last year — as a 21-year-old rookie, after not playing his final season in college — was No. 4 with 1,455 yards receiving and No. 3 with 13 touchdowns.
Chase could be even better this year as he continues to develop, especially if the Bengals offense leans more on the passing game.
The three guys (Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams) who finished ahead of him last year in yardage all have OPOY odds that are way too high relative to his.
- Kupp: +1400, FanDuel
- Jefferson: +1500, DraftKings
- Adams: +2000, BetMGM
And that’s especially the case if we look at their odds to lead the league in receiving.
- Jefferson: +900 FanDuel
- Kupp: +900, BetMGM
- Chase: +1200, FanDuel
- Adams: +1500, PointsBet
Touchdowns accompany yards. If Chase leads the league in receiving yards — and his implied odds (7.69%) to do so are about as good as the odds (10%) for Jefferson and Kupp — then he has a good chance to lead the league in receiving touchdowns.
And if that happens he will be very live for OPOY.
Basically, this bet is a way to arbitrage and leverage the market to lead the league in receiving yards.
Defensive Player of the Year
Aaron Donald: Defensive Player of the Year
Odds: +900
Sportsbook: BetMGM
At +900 odds, Donald has 10% implied odds to win DPOY. I might be underthinking this, but I’m definitely not overthinking it.
Let’s say that there are six players who are real options to win this award: Donald and five other guys.
- EDGE Myles Garrett
- EDGE TJ Watt
- EDGE/LB Micah Parsons
- EDGE Nick Bosa
- EDGE Joey Bosa
And let’s — for the sake of argument — say that each guy has a one-sixth chance to win DPOY: That comes out to 16.7%.
But Donald’s real odds are higher than that.
In 2014 he won Defensive Rookie of the Year, and in the seven years since then he has been an All-Pro each season and never finished outside the top five in DPOY voting. In fact, he has been a top-three finisher five times, and over the past five years he has won the award a record-tying three times.
At the age of 31, Donald seems likely to slow down soon, and he has significant competition for the award, especially in Watt and Parsons, who finished Nos. 1-2 for the award last year, but until we see Donald finish outside the top five in DPOY voting I’ll be betting on him to win the award at anything greater than +500.
Comeback Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley: Comeback Player of the Year
Odds: +1600
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Barkley has top-five odds to win CPOY, as do RBs Derrick Henry (+450, Caesars) and Christian McCaffrey (+900, PointsBet), QB Jameis Winston (+550, DraftKings) and WR Michael Thomas (+1800, Caesars).
Let’s eliminate Winston and Thomas from consideration, given how tied to each other they are as teammates: For CPOY voters, they might very well cancel each other out.
As for the running backs, I believe that Barkley as a talent is in the same tier as Henry and McCaffrey. As a rookie, Barkley led the league in 2018 with 2,028 yards from scrimmage, not unlike Henry (2,141 in 2020) and McCaffrey (2,392 in 2019), who led the league in scrimmage yards in the two following seasons.
But Barkley (25) is younger than Henry (28) and McCaffrey (26), and I have the Giants (23) ahead of the Titans (26) and Panthers (27) in my offensive line rankings. And with HC Brian Daboll, he probably has the best play call of the three, given that Henry and McCaffrey have retreads in OCs Todd Downing and Ben McAdoo.
Henry and McCaffrey probably should have higher implied odds to win CPOY. I do have them projected for more yards and touchdowns this year.
- Henry: 1,458.2 yards rushing, 206.2 yards receiving, 13.0 touchdowns
- McCaffrey: 944.5 yards rushing, 686.8 yards receiving, 10.3 touchdowns
- Barkley: 965.8 yards rushing, 361.6 yards receiving, 9.5 touchdowns
But these are just median projections: Barkley’s best-case scenario is almost certainly as good as that for Henry and McCaffrey. His odds for CPOY should be much closer to theirs.
Most Receiving Yards
DJ Moore: Most Receiving Yards
Odds: +3500
Sportsbook: Caesars
Only one wide receiver over the past three years has finished top-10 in receiving yardage in each season — and that’s Moore (1,175, 1,193 and 1,157 yards).
Not Davante Adams. Not Cooper Kupp. Not Stefon Diggs. Not Tyreek Hill.
Only Moore.
He has toiled in obscurity and been mired in mediocrity for years with the Panthers.
But QB Baker Mayfield is the best passer he has ever had, as sad as that is to say — and the Panthers will need to throw the ball to keep up with opponents.
Moore is still just 25 years old, so he’s in the ascension phase of his career: As good as he has been, he could become even better, especially given his first-round pedigree, his perimeter/slot versatility and his strong speed (4.42-second 40-yard dash) and agility (6.95-second three-cone drill) for his size (6-0, 210 pounds).
I think that Moore has a 1,500-yard season in him. This could be the year we get it.
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