Matthew Freedman’s NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks: Wednesday (5/10)
I know nothing about hockey. I cannot emphasize that enough. Despite knowing almost nothing about the sport, I built a “model” (set of spreadsheets) in the late spring of 2019 to project player production for the NHL playoffs, because March Madness and the NFL draft had ended and my degeneracy knows no bounds.
I did well.
Whenever the 2019-20 season started in the fall I didn’t have the bandwidth to build out the model as I’d intended — and then the sport was suspended in the spring because of the pandemic, so I’ve never returned to betting NHL player props.
That changed during the 2023 NHL playoffs. Every day moving forward — with plenty of necessary help from Kelly Kirby, who knows hockey very well — my model will project the lineups for every team and the following stats for each skater and goalie we expect to play.
- Skaters: Goals, Assists, Points, Shots, Blocks
- Goalies: Saves
Basically, all the markets supported on our NHL player props page.
I’ll post my player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord — so be sure to join the Discord for early notice.
If there's a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1LW | Mitch Marner | 0.35 | 0.78 | 1.13 | 2.68 | 0.69 | NA |
| 1C | Auston Matthews | 0.63 | 0.50 | 1.12 | 4.09 | 1.15 | NA |
| 1RW | Calle Järnkrok | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 1.43 | 0.33 | NA |
| 2LW | John Tavares | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.86 | 2.94 | 0.61 | NA |
| 2C | William Nylander | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.84 | 2.99 | 0.37 | NA |
| 2RW | Alexander Kerfoot | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.34 | 0.70 | NA |
| 3LW | Michael Bunting | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 2.00 | 0.26 | NA |
| 3C | Ryan O’Reilly | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 1.87 | 0.52 | NA |
| 3RW | Noel Acciari | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 1.38 | 1.27 | NA |
| 4LW | Mark Giordano | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.42 | 1.80 | 2.01 | NA |
| 4C | David Kämpf | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 1.21 | 0.44 | NA |
| 4RW | Sam Lafferty | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1.24 | 0.50 | NA |
| 1LD | Morgan Rielly | 0.11 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 2.16 | 1.42 | NA |
| 1RD | Luke Schenn | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1.11 | 1.44 | NA |
| 2LD | T.J. Brodie | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.97 | 1.70 | NA |
| 2RD | Justin Holl | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 1.80 | NA |
| 3LD | Jake McCabe | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1.13 | 2.26 | NA |
| 3RD | Timothy Liljegren | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1.19 | 1.50 | NA |
| Goalie | Joseph Woll | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 34.4 |
Florida Panthers Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1LW | Carter Verhaeghe | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.67 | 2.83 | 0.32 | NA |
| 1C | Aleksander Barkov | 0.37 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 3.10 | 0.71 | NA |
| 1RW | Anthony Duclair | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 2.35 | 0.39 | NA |
| 2LW | Matthew Tkachuk | 0.40 | 0.62 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 0.30 | NA |
| 2C | Sam Bennett | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 2.96 | 0.48 | NA |
| 2RW | Nick Cousins | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 1.40 | 0.43 | NA |
| 3LW | Sam Reinhart | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.73 | 2.55 | 0.53 | NA |
| 3C | Anton Lundell | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 2.14 | 0.68 | NA |
| 3RW | Eetu Luostarinen | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1.44 | 0.68 | NA |
| 4LW | Colin White | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.99 | 0.30 | NA |
| 4C | Eric Staal | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 1.69 | 0.36 | NA |
| 4RW | Zac Dalpe | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1.26 | 0.47 | NA |
| 1LD | Gustav Forsling | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 2.48 | 1.33 | NA |
| 1RD | Aaron Ekblad | 0.15 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 2.67 | 1.12 | NA |
| 2LD | Brandon Montour | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 2.62 | 1.36 | NA |
| 2RD | Marc Staal | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.97 | 1.35 | NA |
| 3LD | Radko Gudas | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1.57 | 1.57 | NA |
| 3RD | Josh Mahura | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.98 | 0.98 | NA |
| Goalie | Sergei Bobrovsky | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 29.1 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Jake McCabe Over 1.5 Blocked Shots | -140 | 1.4 | 1 | DK |
| T.J. Brodie Under 2.5 Blocked Shots | -130 | 1.3 | 1 | DK |
| Auston Matthews Under 4.5 Shots | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | FD |
| John Tavares Under 3.5 Shots | -135 | 1.35 | 1 | DK |
| John Tavares Over 0.5 Assists | 155 | 1 | 1.55 | DK |
| William Nylander Under 3.5 Shots | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | DK |
| Ryan O’Reilly Over 0.5 Assists | 158 | 1 | 1.58 | FD |
| Joseph Woll Over 30.5 Saves | -104 | 1.04 | 1 | FD |
Florida Panthers Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Aaron Ekblad Over 2.5 Shots | 104 | 1 | 1.04 | FD |
| Aleksander Barkov Over 2.5 Shots | -135 | 1.35 | 1 | DK |
| Anthony Duclair Over 0.5 Assists | 215 | 1 | 2.15 | DK |
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers
Vegas Golden Knights Player Projections
| Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 3.08 | 0.28 | NA |
| Jack Eichel | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.85 | 3.14 | 0.85 | NA |
| Ivan Barbashev | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 1.33 | 0.63 | NA |
| Mark Stone | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.87 | 2.23 | 0.89 | NA |
| Chandler Stephenson | 0.21 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 1.39 | 0.81 | NA |
| Brett Howden | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.91 | 0.97 | NA |
| Reilly Smith | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.59 | 2.19 | 0.48 | NA |
| William Karlsson | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 1.85 | 0.71 | NA |
| Michael Amadio | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 1.20 | 0.45 | NA |
| William Carrier | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 1.79 | 0.39 | NA |
| Nicolas Roy | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 1.56 | 0.62 | NA |
| Keegan Kolesar | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.98 | 0.56 | NA |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 0.16 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 2.58 | 2.34 | NA |
| Alec Martinez | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1.14 | 3.09 | NA |
| Shea Theodore | 0.15 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 2.55 | 1.36 | NA |
| Brayden McNabb | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1.03 | 2.58 | NA |
| Nicolas Hague | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1.56 | 1.73 | NA |
| Zach Whitecloud | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1.12 | 1.96 | NA |
| Adin Hill | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 30.9 |
Edmonton Oilers Player Projections
| Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| Leon Draisaitl | 0.66 | 0.94 | 1.60 | 3.10 | 0.32 | NA |
| Connor McDavid | 0.65 | 1.23 | 1.88 | 3.78 | 0.39 | NA |
| Evander Kane | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.86 | 3.52 | 0.35 | NA |
| Zach Hyman | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.91 | 2.87 | 0.44 | NA |
| Nick Bjugstad | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 1.96 | 0.46 | NA |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0.35 | 0.68 | 1.03 | 2.55 | 0.50 | NA |
| Warren Foegele | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 1.69 | 0.24 | NA |
| Ryan McLeod | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 1.29 | 0.39 | NA |
| Derek Ryan | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1.07 | 0.40 | NA |
| Philip Broberg | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.82 | 0.59 | NA |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.54 | 1.46 | 0.52 | NA |
| Klim Kostin | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.24 | NA |
| Darnell Nurse | 0.15 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 1.83 | NA |
| Cody Ceci | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 1.25 | 1.49 | NA |
| Mattias Ekholm | 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 1.84 | 1.18 | NA |
| Evan Bouchard | 0.14 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 2.30 | 1.15 | NA |
| Brett Kulak | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1.51 | 1.07 | NA |
| Vincent Desharnais | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.48 | 1.32 | NA |
| Stuart Skinner | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 28.5 |
Vegas Golden Knights Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Alex Pietrangelo Over 2.5 Shots | 122 | 1 | 1.22 | FD |
| Shea Theodore Over 2.5 Shots | 150 | 1 | 1.5 | FD |
| Nicolas Hague Over 1.5 Blocked Shots | 100 | 1 | 1 | DK |
| Ivan Barbashev Over 0.5 Assists | 225 | 1 | 2.25 | DK |
| Jonathan Marchessault Over 0.5 Assists | 220 | 1 | 2.2 | FD |
Edmonton Oilers Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Darnell Nurse Over 0.5 Assists | 200 | 1 | 2 | FD |
| Leon Draisaitl Under 3.5 Shots | 100 | 1 | 1 | DK |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 2.5 Shots | 148 | 1 | 1.48 | FD |
| Cody Ceci Under 1.5 Blocked Shot | 125 | 1 | 1.25 | DK |
| Evander Kane Over 0.5 Assists | 178 | 1 | 1.78 | FD |
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