Men’s US Open Sports Betting Preview (2020)
Many tennis stars have said the US Open is their favorite major because of the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows in New York. Players especially loved playing at night there as the roars and electricity from the crowd are unlike any other tournament.
Unfortunately, we will not get to experience anything like that in this year’s US Open since no fans are allowed in attendance. In addition, casual fans who may not be current with their tennis news may be shocked to learn that huge names like Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are absent from the bracket. Defending champion Nadal cited concerns over the pandemic and is instead focusing his efforts on the French Open while Roger Federer is still recovering from knee surgery. Other notable players not competing this year are former US Open champions Juan Martin del Potro, Stan Wawrinka, 2014 runner-up Kei Nishikori and Nick Kyrgios.
All of these absentees means Novak Djokovic, the only member of the “Big Three†participating in the tournament, is the overwhelming favorite. Is he worth the price at such short odds given the reduced field?
The folks at BetMGM are one of the only books to currently offer bets outside of just picking the US Open winner. There, you can scour the odds of who will win each quarter, or pick the round that some of the top players will fall in. Thus, we have reviewed the odds that BetMGM has to offer and have decided on our best bets for the 2020 Men’s US Open.
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Fading the Favorites
Given the absence of Nadal and Federer, Novak Djokovic is a monstrous -125 favorite to win the 2020 US Open. It is not often that a player has a minus sign in front of their number to win a tournament, as a lot can go wrong in seven matches. While Djokovic is certainly the man to beat, I cannot justify backing him at this price.
While the last 13 Grand Slam events have been won by the Big Three, the US Open has historically been the event where “outsiders†have had success. Three of the last eight winners of the US Open have come from someone other than one of these favorites (Stan Wawrinka in 2016, Marin Cilic in 2014, and Andy Murray in 2012). Djokovic has won the US Open three times in his career, with four runner-up finishes and three other semifinal appearances. If there is a tournament he is beatable at, it is this one. With all the other factors and unknowns that the pandemic brings, it is smartest to oppose Djokovic and look for others at a higher price.
Last year’s runner-up Daniil Medvedev is also one I will be fading at his price. Medvedev did not appear in the greatest form in the Western and Southern Open this week, losing in the quarterfinals to Roberto Bautista-Agut. In addition, Medvedev has two of last year’s semifinalists (Matteo Berrettini and Grigor Dimitrov) in his own quarter. Thus, even making it to the semifinals will be quite a chore.
Best Bet: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+700)
In a tournament with so many unique factors, fourth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas is ready to break through for his first-ever Grand Slam championship. Tsitsipas has made a semifinal of a Grand Slam event just once in his career at the 2019 Australian Open. His best result in the US Open is a third-round appearance in 2017. However, he clearly is comfortable on the hard court as evident by his 2019 ATP Finals championship in London where he beat Dominic Thiem in three sets in the final.
As of this writing, he is in the semifinals of the Western and Southern Open where he will face Milos Raonic. Tsitsipas beat big servers Kevin Anderson and John Isner on his way to the semifinals, so he has proven that he can neutralize others’ best weapons on their best surface.
Tsitsipas benefited greatly from the draw as he is in arguably the weakest quarter of all. One of his toughest hurdles before the semifinals is fifth-seed Alexander Zverev, but there is no guarantee Zverev gets past the first round as he has to face the monster serve of Kevin Anderson. In addition, ninth-seed Diego Schwatzman does not have the power to compete with Tsitsipas.
Besides Djokovic, Tsitsipas has the best odds at +125 to win his quarter and reach the semifinals. If an eventual match with Djokovic awaits, Tsitsipas will not be overwhelmed as he has taken two of the three matches the two have played on an outdoor hard court. With a perceived cake-walk to the semis and a great head-to-head record against Djokovic, Tsitsipas’s odds of +700 are too great to ignore.
Other Bets: Milos Raonic to win his Quarter (+600)
Though he is just the 25th-seed, Canadian Milos Raonic has been playing much better tennis than his seed gives him credit for. Raonic is also in the semifinals of the Western and Southern Open (which is being played on the grounds of the US Open) and he has looked very comfortable on those courts. He has beaten the likes of Sam Querrey, Dan Evans, Andy Murray and Filip Krajinovic to get to this point and has not dropped a set in the process.
Raonic’s odds are high because his quarter has been named the “quarter of doom.†Dominic Thiem, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur and former US Open champion Marin Cilic are all capable of coming out of this group. However, Raonic looks fresh and healthy and his serve is one of the most underrated on the men’s side. We love his chances to make a semifinal in a second-straight event.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.