Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick
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The Browns defeated their divisional rival, the Steelers, by a score of 21-7 in Thursday Night Football Week 11. Despite earning a solid victory, the Browns’ organization enters this week in a somber mood after star defensive end Myles Garrett was suspended indefinitely for his actions against the Steelers. It will be interesting to monitor the Browns’ mindset coming into this game, as there’s probably a fair amount of shock hovering around the locker room after losing one of their defensive leaders.
On the other hand, the Dolphins had their 5-0 ATS streak snapped with a 37-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday. It could be time for Miami to start a new streak, as they find themselves as double-digit underdogs yet again. The Dolphins have covered three straight games while qualifying as underdogs of 10+ points, and they’ll look to keep things close in Cleveland this weekend.
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Details
- Opening Lines: The spread opened at Browns -10.5. It fell to -10 before moving back to 10.5. The over/under has increased marginally after opening at 44.
- Current Line: Browns -10.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- O/U: 44.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland OH
- Start Time: 1:00pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: September 25, 2016 – Dolphins defeated Browns 30-24 (OT) in Miami
View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Dolphins at Browns >>
Overview
The Dolphins had been playing solid defense since the calendar flipped to November, but the Bills gashed them for 37 points while quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver John Brown had career games. The main question revolves around which version of Miami’s defense will show up for this battle against the Browns. Even if the Dolphins’ defensive generosity carries into this draw, can Baker Mayfield overcome his seasonal struggles to take full advantage? The Dolphins rank 31st in rushing defense, so perhaps running back Nick Chubb can pace the Browns’ offense with another monster performance. Still, will that be enough for Cleveland to take care of business to the tune of a double-digit victory?
Trends
- The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
- The Browns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
- The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the AFC.
- The under is 9-4 in the last 13 road games for the Dolphins.
Prop Bets
Nick Chubb OVER 102 Rushing Yards
Yes, this bet seems chalky, but I’m all over it. Chubb is a volume monster, seeing 20+ carries in each of the last five games. As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins rank 31st against the run this season. Game flow should be on Chubb’s side, and I believe he’ll take 23-25 rushing attempts overall. He shouldn’t need that many to cross the triple-digit threshold. After all, Chubb has topped this 102 yard total in three of his last five games, which included some tough draws against the Seahawks, Bills, and Patriots.
Bottom Line
Sure, this could be a breakout spot for the Browns to finally piece together a runaway victory. However, 67% of BettingPros’ experts are siding with the Dolphins plus the points, and I tend to agree. Even though the Dolphins fell apart last week, this team has shown chemistry through the month of November. I believe they can hang around in this meeting with the Browns, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will keep them within the number, even if it takes a (meaningless) touchdown drive in the last few minutes.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 12
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Detroit Lions at Washington (+3.5)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.