Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Both the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills have something to play for in their Week 17 regular-season finale. The Dolphins need a win over the Bills or losses by either the Ravens, Browns or Colts to clinch a playoff berth. The Bills have had the AFC East division wrapped up for two weeks now, but can clinch the No. 2 seed and the rights to at least two home playoff games with either a win over the Dolphins or a Steelers loss to the Browns. Will Miami clinch their second playoff berth since 2008, or will the Bills continue their impressive play and enter the postseason on a high note?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Bills -1; O/U 43.5
- Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: September 20, 2020 – Bills 31, Dolphins 28
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MIA
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+1.5
-122
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o44.5
-112
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-108
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BUF
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-1.5
+102
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u44.5 -109
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-113
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Dolphins vs. Bills >>
Overview
If not for some Fitzmagic in Week 16, the Miami Dolphins would have entered this week on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff race. Miami trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 22-16 with under four minutes left before Ryan Fitzpatrick relieved Tua Tagovailoa and led the team on a three-play 75-yard scoring drive. Then once again trailing 25-23 with 19 seconds left, Fitzpatrick got the Dolphins in field goal range with a bomb to Mack Hollins and a face mask penalty that tacked on 15 extra yards. Thus, the Dolphins escaped with a 26-25 victory and now control their own destiny as the current No. 5 seed in the AFC. Though Fitzpatrick seemed to revive an offense that stalled for most of the game last week, there has been no official announcement made as to who would be the team’s starting quarterback this week. It was Fitzpatrick who was under center in Miami’s Week 2 loss to the Bills, but he did throw for 328 yards and two touchdowns in that game.
The Buffalo Bills are arguably the hottest team in the league at the moment. They have won eight of their last nine games, with the only loss coming on a last second Hail Mary from Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo’s last six wins have all come by 10 or more points, and Josh Allen is reminding people that the MVP race should not just be a two-man race between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo’s last four games have all been on national television, and Allen has reveled in the spotlight. He has thrown for 1,292 yards and 12 touchdowns with just one interception in that span. The offensive line is doing a tremendous job of keeping him upright as he has been sacked just three times in the last four weeks. Allen’s ascent has been helped tremendously by wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who enters this week as the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week after his 145-yard and three touchdown performance against the Patriots.
Trends
- The Bills are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
- Buffalo is 4-0 SU in their last four games against Miami.
- The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Dolphins and Bills.
Bottom Line
The spread for this game opened as Buffalo -1 and was briefly bet all the way up to -3.5, while the total also momentarily increased from 43.5 to 47.5 in that span. We still do not know who will play quarterback for Miami, or if Buffalo will rest any key starters as the worst they can do is fall to the No. 3 seed. However, news out of Pittsburgh seems to have had a direct impact on how bettors view this game. The Steelers announced that they will rest Ben Roethlisberger and will instead start Mason Rudolph at quarterback against the Browns this week. As a reminder, if the Steelers lose the Bills would clinch the No. 2 seed regardless of their result. Thus, we may be hearing in the near future that Buffalo is following suit and resting some of their starters as well.
One thing we know with relative certainty is that Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley will miss this game after injuring his leg in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over New England. It will be interesting to see how Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott approaches this game. On one hand, it would be very tempting to keep their momentum going and rolling into the playoffs. On the other hand, health is of the utmost importance and he may be cautious about risking other guys going down with injuries, especially if Beasley’s injury appears more serious than the “week to week†designation he currently has. In addition, will McDermott put as much emphasis on playing home games versus road games in the playoffs when the stands will not be filled even close to capacity anywhere they go?
The Bills were in a similar situation last year with the No. 5 seed wrapped up heading into Week 17. They chose to rest a number of key starters in a meaningless game, and it did not appear it would cost them in their first playoff game the next week after they built a 13-0 halftime lead over the Texans. However, they could not seal the deal in the second half, and their season ended sooner than they had hoped. Look for McDermott to play this one a little more aggressively this year, as it is too risky to disrupt the torrid stretch they are on at the moment.
Even if the Bills rest starters, Buffalo is a better team than Miami with Tagovailoa under center. Though he has a 7-2 record since taking over as starter, the Dolphins have failed to score 30 points in any of his starts. It appears Miami’s best chance to win is with Fitzpatrick under center, and I would not put anyone off waiting until later in the week to wager on this game until we receive more clarity. However, if there is value on this line at the moment, it lies with Buffalo who would rather earn the No. 2 seed on their own instead of backing their way into it.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.