Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos Odds and Game Pick (2020)

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Drew Lock could be the start of something special. If the Broncos keep Drew Lock inserted as their franchise quarterback we could be seeing the start of what could become a heated rivalry between two compelling young quarterbacks. Of course, in 2020 their prospects will be tied to their defenses just as much as, if not more so, than their offense. If you are a fan of talented young quarterbacks and a heavyweight fight on defense, this may be the game for you. 

	MIA	-4 -110	o45.5 -110	-208
JOIN NOW	DEN	+4 -110	u45.5 -110	+175

View consensus picks from experts for the Dolphins at Broncos >>

Get a Deposit Bonus up to $500 at BetMGM >>

Overview

The Miami Dolphins are now 6-3 on the season and sit in playoff position thanks to a tiebreaker over Tennessee and Baltimore (and Cleveland). The switch to Tua Tagovailoa from fan favorite Ryan Fitzpatrick was controversial to some at the time but is now looked at as a shrewd move by a sudden coach of the year candidate. Tua hadn’t been asked to do much but play mistake-free football, and that is exactly what he has done as the defensive and special teams units have stepped up to help propel the team to five straight wins (three with Tua). As long as the Dolphins defense continues to thrive, they are going to be a tough out for any team, including supposed powerhouses like the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Denver Broncos are 3-6 on the season. I have said it here before but it is worth echoing again, the Broncos season was over before t even began. Losing future Hall of Famer Von Miller for the season promised that the defense, who failed to make up for the loss of Chris Harris Jr., would struggle due to questions at corner. The offense was supposed to be one of the most explosive in the league and signaled an arms race in the AFC West, but an injury to top receiver Courtland Sutton has forced two exciting, but unprepared rookie receivers into starters roles. Perhaps they would have been ready if there was a normal offseason, but asking Jeudy to be a number one with the unique lack of preparation has made him more inconsistent. Still, the future is bright for the Broncos offense, it just painfully clear that their season is all but over. 

Trends

• Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against the AFC
• Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against the AFC
• Over is 6-2 in the Dolphins last eight contests against teams with losing records 
• Under is 13-6 in the Broncos last 19 home contests 

Prop Bets

Jerry Jeudy over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
Phillip Lindsay over 27.5 rushing yards is an interesting line, but he simply is not getting enough touches to have a definite lean. It sounds nice at first glance but is a tougher play when one analyzes his recent form. Jerry Jeudy has been a click machine this season but has a tough matchup awaiting him against two of the top corners in the league. Still, Jeudy is the number one receiver for the Broncos and is being treated like it. Jeudy has a 21 percent target share and a 41 percent air yards share since Week 7.

Want some context? His 590 air yards since Week 7 leads the NFL, his 16.9 yard average depth of target is the highest for anyone with more than 20 targets, and his air yard share ranks him eighth in the league. Jeudy has cleared 54.5 receiving yards in seven of his nine contests this year. The only reason this number has been set where it is because he will be squaring off against the powerhouse cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. They have both been strong this season, but with Jeudy now being used more and more on intermediate and deep routes rather than relying on efficiency, he still has a clear path to at least 55 receiving yards. Lock Jeudy in as a one unit play at BetMGM.

Bottom Line

I smell a trap, a dirty trap. In all seriousness, the four point spread for this contest should raise some alarm bells. However, we would do well to remember that Miami is playing on the road against a solid defensive team in what could very well be inclement weather. Yes, the cold weather narrative has been disproven, but it is worth noting. The -3.5 this number sat at earlier this week was much more favorable. However, there is still some value in the Miami Dolphins to cover the spread. Their defense has been playing lights out and Tua has been doing more than enough to help them win games. There’s no reason to think that will change in Week 11 against a team like the Broncos. Fire the Dolphins up at BetMGM, but keep it to one unit.

Pick: Dolphins -4 (-110) 

View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including Common Sports Betting Terms — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.