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Miami vs. Texas: 2023 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Elite Eight Preview

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Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Sunday’s Elite 8 showdown: Miami vs. Texas.

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Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns Game Info

Miami Hurricanes (28-7, 15-5 ACC) vs. Texas Longhorns (29-8, 12-6 Big 12)

  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 19, 2023
  • Start Time: 5:05 p.m. ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Center — Kansas City, MO
  • Coverage: CBS
  • Last Meeting: March 23, 2008 — Texas defeated Miami 75-72 in Little Rock.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

  • Moneyline: MIA: (+146) | TEX: (-178)
  • Point Spread: MIA: +3.5 (-104) | TEX: -3.5 (-118)
  • Total: 149.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

  • Miami 2022-23 Betting Trends: 21-14 ATS; 16-18-1 to the Over
  • Texas 2022-23 Betting Trends: 19-18 ATS; 17-17-3 to the Over
  • Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
  • Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a SU winning record.
  • The Under is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight NCAA Tournament games.
  • Texas is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
  • Texas is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games.
  • The Under is 7-1 in Texas’s last eight games.

Overview

This is a historic Elite Eight in that it is the first in NCAA Tournament history without a No. 1 seed and the first with one or fewer No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Thus, Texas carries the torch as the only top-two seed remaining in the tournament, and it has a lot of pressure riding on it with a chance to play the Final Four in its home state in Houston.

Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview

Miami was picked to finish fourth in the ACC Preseason Media Poll but silenced doubters after winning the regular season conference championship. The Hurricanes are in the Elite Eight for the second consecutive year, the only team to make it back from last year. Miami is searching for its first-ever Final Four appearance, while head coach Jim Larranaga seeks his second career trip to the Final Four after taking George Mason there in 2006.

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

Texas’ program was in disarray after dismissing head coach Chris Beard mid-season amid domestic violence allegations. Since then, interim head coach Rodney Terry has led the team to a 22-7 record and a Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship. Texas looks for its first Final Four appearance since 2003 and currently has the second-best odds (+360) at DraftKings (behind UConn) to win the national championship.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Pick and Prediction

It is hard not to be impressed with Texas’ NCAA Tournament run. First, the Longhorns showed their experience and discipline in holding a high-powered Colgate squad to 61 points (its second-lowest scoring total of the season). Then, center Dylan Disu carried Texas with a career-high 28 points against Penn State in the Round of 32. And with him in a walking boot in the Sweet 16, the Longhorns’ three-headed guard combination of Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter, and Sir’Jabari Rice combined for 53 of the team’s 83 points while going 7-of-9 from 3-point range. However, we are concerned with Disu’s injury entering this matchup, as Miami’s Norchad Omier should feast on the backboards.

Omier had 17 rebounds (eight offensive) against Indiana’s talented frontcourt, and the Hurricanes outrebounded the Hoosiers by 17 as a team. In addition, there has not been a more impressive offensive performance in the tournament than what Miami did against Houston, scoring 1.27 points per possession against a Cougars defense that ranks in the top five nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom), effective field goal percentage defense, 3-point percentage allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed.

Miami is a battle-tested team (27th in D-I experience) and can use its experience from last year’s Elite Eight run to help it this year. In addition, while Rodney Terry is more than worthy of being named Texas’s coach long-term, a significant coaching edge goes to the Hurricanes with Jim Larranaga and his 696 wins (in 37 years of experience). So as long as we are grabbing more than four points on the point spread, which we are at BetMGM, we are eschewing the moneyline and happily backing the Hurricanes, who have covered eight of ten games as underdogs this season.

Pick: Miami +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.