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Michigan State vs. Minnesota: College Football Week 9 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Michigan State vs. Minnesota.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Michigan State vs. Minnesota

Michigan State (+7) at Minnesota

ATL: Minny -1.3

These teams are mirror images of one another. You just don’t realize it because Michigan State has played a much tougher strength of schedule, and because Sparty has the scandal stink.

By the advanced numbers, the offenses are of, essentially, the exact-same quality. Minnesota has a slightly better defense. Michigan State has the slightly better special teams.

The Spartans are 2-5 against SP+’s No. 5 SOS. The Gophers are 4-3 against SP+’s No. 20 SOS. But in second-order wins, MSU is +1.0 and Minnesota is -1.0, giving the schools an identical 3.0 second-order win total. MSU’s was posted against the tougher SOS.

Minnesota is coming off one of the biggest regular season wins of the PJ Fleck era – a 12-10 victory at Iowa last week that marked Fleck’s first win over Kirk Ferentz. Fleck was utterly jubilant in his post-game comments. Pictures circulated of the postgame raucous celebration in the locker room, where Gopher players lit cigars. (Humorously, one was smoking a cigarette).

Minnesota has been celebrating that win all week, posting pictures of Floyd of Rosedale on social media. And let’s all be clear: This was a game Minnesota only won because the refs, who went under the hood to see if Iowa PR Cooper Dejean had stepped out of bounds on his apparent game-winning return, happened to also see Dejean’s below-the-waist off-hand “poison” gesture to his teammates when the punt hit the ground.

By rule – a rule nobody knew existed and which needs to be revisited this offseason – this constituted an invalid fair catch. Even though every coach in America coaches his returners to do this every time a punt hits the ground. And even though it is rarely called. (Watch for yourself this weekend on any punt where the ball hits the ground – see what the return man does with his hands).

That development has had the Gopher roster partying like they just stopped an asteroid from hitting planet earth for the past week. Which sets up an all-time letdown/deflation spot for Minnesota. In a spot where it is playing an opponent that is its objective equal in reality… but nobody realizes it.

And not for nothing, Minnesota won’t be at full strength for this game. The Gophers, a team that cannot throw, will be without RBs Darius Taylor and Bryce Williams in this game. Taylor re-aggravated the injury he was returning from in the Iowa game. Williams is out for the year.

RB Zach Evans has been banged up consistently. And the coaching staff doesn’t trust veteran portal addition RB Sean Tyler, who was benched earlier this year. Minnesota’s offensive line also has issues. In addition, LB Cody Lindenberg, an all-Big 10 linebacker last year who hasn’t played a snap in 2023, was trending towards his season debut early last week before a setback withheld him again. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to give it a go this weekend.

The Gophers have no business laying this kind of number against a similar opponent. Particularly in these circumstances.

We’re also on the moneyline. Heck, let’s just call it: Sparty outright.

The pick: Michigan State +7 (play as an underdog)

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


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