Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Two NFC North rivals square off for the first time in primetime when the Minnesota Vikings travel to Soldier Field for a battle with the Chicago Bears.
The Vikings are fighting to stay alive in the NFC wild card race, while the Bears are basically playing for pride at this point.
Every Vikings game seemingly comes down to the wire. Will the Bears put up a fight and give us another thriller? Let’s break it down:
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Details
- Opening line: Minnesota -3.5
- Current line: Minnesota -5.5
- Total: 44.5
Minnesota makes everything interesting
The Minnesota Vikings just can’t help themselves. Despite jumping out to a 29-0 lead, the Vikings needed a stop in their own end zone in the final seconds to fend off the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday night.
Vikings fans probably need therapy after this season, as 12 of their 13 games have been decided by one score. It’s fair to wonder if the Vikings are underperforming. Minnesota is 6-7 despite ranking 12th in overall DVOA and having 7.5 estimated wins, per FootballOutsiders.
Minnesota has the makings of a playoff team, but the overly conservative combo of Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins often holds this team back. While Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson give Minnesota two lethal weapons, it looks like Adam Thielen might miss Monday night’s game, which is a big blow in the red zone.
Defensively, Minnesota is regressing. The Vikings now rank 19th in defensive DVOA and have been particularly porous against the run. Minnesota ranks 26th in run defense DVOA and dead last in defensive adjusted line yards. Minnesota defends the pass well and ranks 12th in pass defense DVOA, but that isn’t exactly Chicago’s strength.
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Bears battling COVID
I hate talking about COVID, but to no surprise, it will be a factor in this Week 15 game too. As of right now, Chicago could be without all three of its coordinators, plus 20 players Monday night. Most notably, receiver Allen Robinson and safety Eddie Jackson were placed in COVID protocols. And as we’ve seen with Washington and Cleveland, these situations could only get worse before they get better.
The number of guys on the COVID list, plus the impact it has on preparation is why this line has shot up during the week. It doesn’t help that Chicago ranks outside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
Chicago played a perfect first half against Green Bay and still failed to cover as 12.5-point underdogs. Offensively, quarterback Justin Fields is showing strides but still has a long way to go in his development.
The question for Chicago will be whether they can take advantage of Minnesota’s issues against the run. The ground game happens to be the only area where Chicago is somewhat decent, ranking 19th in DVOA. However, Chicago’s offensive line ranks just 24th in adjusted line yards.
Defensively, things don’t get much better for the Bears. Let’s start with the run game, where the Bears rank 19th in DVOA. Chicago’s front four ranks 24th in adjusted line yards, are giving up 4.45 yards per carry, and rank 25th in second-level yards.
Minnesota’s offensive line isn’t a great run-blocking unit, but Cook should still be able to gash big runs against Chicago.
Chicago also could struggle against Minnesota’s passing game. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson gave an admirable effort against Davante Adams last week, but he’s still not quite a shutdown cornerback. Jefferson could go off again, especially if Jackson doesn’t play.
Bottom Line
As I’ve written all week, the COVID factor makes this game hard to handicap. The Vikings are 2-4 as a favorite while the Bears are 2-8 as an underdog.
The Vikings are clearly the superior team, but they have a tendency to play down to their competition. However, Chicago’s COVID issues could only get worse, while Minnesota has just three players on the COVID reserve list as of Friday afternoon.
So, here’s how I’d play this game. If you like Minnesota, I’d bet them right now, as I suspect Chicago’s COVID issues could only get worse between now and Monday. Otherwise, I’m sitting this one out unless we get better news from the Bears on the COVID front.
The pick: Minnesota -5.5 right now, or pass
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