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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/21)

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We’ve got a full slate of baseball on the horizon today. We have a game starting at 11:35 am EST and another at 7:10 pm.

There’s plenty of action and many valuable lines on the board.

I’ve reviewed all the games and found my favorite bets for today’s slate. Let’s earn some money to finish off the weekend!

Check out MLB Home Run Odds for all players in today’s games >>

Today’s Best MLB Bets

All wagers are 1 unit
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will send out Framber Valdez to the mound. He’s a lefty with a 2.21 xFIP over the last 30 days. Valdez has struck out 31% of batters in the last month and has walked just 3.1%. He’s also earning 56% of grounders over the last month too.

He’ll face a projected Oakland Athletics lineup that has hit just 18.2% of line drives and has 6.3% of walks over the last month against lefties.

Meanwhile, the Astros will face James Kaprielian of the Athletics. The righty has a 4.62 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also watched his last 19 lefties hit a .465 wOBA and ISO of .313.

He’ll have to face lefties like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. But even beyond that, Kaprielian has given up a .347 wOBA to righties. He’s not getting the job done against either side of the plate. Instead, he’s allowed 36% of line drives and is inducing only 24% of ground balls.

I’ll back the Astros -1.5.

Bet: Astros -1.5 (-166)

Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants

The Miami Marlins will send out left-hander Jesus Luzardo for tonight’s ball game. Luzardo has a 5.44 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struggled badly against right-handed hitters.

Righties are hitting a .382 wOBA and ISO of .291 over the last 96 plate appearances against righties. Meanwhile, the Giants will likely have seven righties in the lineup. Those righties have combined to hit a .220 ISO and wOBA of .398 against lefties in the last month.

On the other hand, Alex Wood will get the call for the Giants. He’s also a lefty but has a 4.59 xFIP over the last 30 days. He won’t add many strikeouts but will induce high-ground balls and give up a low portion of line drives.

Still, like Luzardo, Wood has struggled against righties. He’s allowed a .510 wOBA and ISO of .462 to his last 14 righties.

Miami’s lineup will be mostly filled with righties. Those righties have hit a 211 ISO and wOBA of .369 against lefties over the last month.

Therefore, I will roll with the Over 8 in this matchup. Both of these lineups perform better against lefties. Plus, both left-handed pitchers haven’t looked all that great in their recent starts.

Let’s cheer on all the righties in this game.

Bet: Over 8 (-105)

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:


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