MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (6/11)
Let’s end the weekend on a solid note!
I’ve got a couple of MLB bets that I’ll be placing today. If you agree, sweat out these bets with me!
Check out MLB Home Run Odds for all players in today's games >>
Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
All wagers are 1 unit
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
We’re getting a juicy price with the Mets today.
The Mets ended their seven-game losing streak with a win yesterday over the Pirates. It seemed like the team got its mojo back.
New York’s facing Mitch Keller, who has probably over-performed up to this point. Keller has allowed a .161 ISO and wOBA of .333 in the last month. He’s allowing a wOBA of .414 to his previous 73 lefties and also giving up a .200 ISO to those same lefties.
The Mets will have more lefties than righties in the lineup tonight. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Brett Baty, and Omar Narvaez should be in the lineup. We might even see Daniel Vogelbach against the right-hander. So there could be six lefties against Keller.
On the other hand, Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been much better for the Mets. He’s kept his wOBA at .335 and ISO at .186 over the last month. Carrasco is earning 53.5% of ground balls and keeping fly balls down to 21.1% over the last month. It’s also difficult for players to hit line drives against Carrasco.
As long as Carrasco gets out of the first inning, he should put together a solid performance for the Mets today.
Bet: Mets (+110)
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
It’ll be Louie Varland on the mound for the Twins. He’s struggled recently, allowing an ISO of .250 and wOBA of .328 to his last 125 batters faced.
Varland has still done well limiting walks, but his strikeouts are now down 19.2% over the last month. He’s getting plenty of ground balls against righties and has limited line drives at a high rate, especially to lefties. Despite allowing a .382 ISO to his last 38 lefties, Varland has limited line drives to 10.7% against lefties.
He’ll take on Kevin Gausman, who has earned over 35% of strikeouts over the last month. Gausman has walked nearly 11% of lefties but has limited teams to a .077 ISO and wOBA of .233 over the previous month. He’ll face a Twins lineup that has struck out 29.4% of the time over the last month against righties. Only Christian Vazquez, in the projected lineup, has struck out under 24.7% of the time over the last month against righties.
The Twins also hit a wOBA of just 289 and earned 8.4% of walks. I’ll back the Under in today’s matchup.
Bet: Under 8 (-110)
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