MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/14)
It is wild to think that in the illustrious history of the New York Yankees, they have won their first four series of the season just five times in franchise history. However, after losing Thursday’s series opener against the Minnesota Twins, they have work to do to win a fifth consecutive series. While keeping the Yankees in mind for this weekend’s plays, we look at three other wagers for today’s column.
Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.
YTD: 17-18-1 (+1.49 units)
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants (-142) vs. Detroit Tigers (+120) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
It is unclear what San Francisco’s plans for Sean Manaea are this season, as he has been used in relief (a two-inning appearance against the White Sox) and as part of an early-season six-man rotation with a six-inning start in his second appearance. However, Manaea appeared fully stretched out in that start, recording eight strikeouts on 76 pitches. We look for another strong outing from Manaea against the MLB-worst Tigers (2-9, .182 winning percentage).
We would not put anyone off backing the Over on Manaea’s strikeout prop, considering he faces a Detroit lineup that ranks 29th in strikeout rate (33.3%) against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, San Francisco looks to do damage against Detroit’s Joey Wentz, the Tigers’ heralded prospect, who has struggled with command so far this season (16.1% walk percentage, 9.7% strikeout percentage). San Francisco ranked ninth in BABIP (.313) entering Thursday and should put plenty of balls in play against Wentz, who ranks in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate.
We are eschewing the steeper moneyline odds in favor of the runline, given that the Giants won 62.5% of their games (25 of 40) as road favorites last year and covered the runline in 22 of those wins.
https://twitter.com/RotoPT_/status/1644802298411986944
Pick: Giants RL (+118)
Texas Rangers (+142) vs. Houston Astros (-168) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
Martin Perez earned the first All-Star nomination of his 11-year career last year, largely because of how well he pitched at home. Perez has made 17 starts at Globe Life Field in his second stint with the Rangers and allowed zero or one earned run in 11 of them. Contrastly, life as a visitor against the Astros at Minute Maid Park is a different story, although he has a respectable 2.76 ERA in nine career appearances there. However, his strikeout totals are way down there (42 K’s in 62 innings), and he has struck out current Astros only a combined 20 times in 132 at-bats. Given that those same hitters have a combined slash line of .311/.367/.383 against Perez, it is more likely than not that he will have a shorter outing than a longer one.
Houston entered Thursday with a 9.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is by far the lowest in the league. Meanwhile, righty Luis Garcia has actually been worse than his 7.00 ERA suggests (8.86 xERA). While he has lowered his xERA in each of the previous three seasons, his command has been an issue this year (11.1% walk rate), and he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage allowed.
The Under has cashed in nine of the previous 12 meetings in Houston between these teams, but recent trends suggest the Over is the correct play. The Over has cashed in each of Texas’s last five games and six consecutive home games for the Astros.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-122)
Colorado Rockies (+144) vs. Seattle Mariners (-172) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)
When analyzing Colorado’s hitting numbers, one must consider how hitter-friendly Coors Field inflates its batting numbers. The Rockies ranked fifth in BABIP (.323) and ninth in ISO against left-handed pitching last year but finished just 18th in wRC+. Now the Rockies rank 12th in BABIP, 24th in ISO, and 25th in wRC+ in road games this season against lefties and should be in for another struggle against a pitcher with great success against them.
Marco Gonzales has made just one start against the Rockies since 2014, but it was a brilliant one, limiting them to two earned runs in five innings in a win at Coors Field in 2021. Gonzales has held current Rockies to a .226/.305/.260 slash line. In addition, we expect Seattle’s offense to jump on Colorado’s Austin Gomber, who has allowed an average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage in the 82nd and 87th percentile respectively through two starts.
Colorado has been successful in this rivalry, winning 10 of the previous 14 head-to-head matchups. However, Seattle is an impressive 8-1 at home in its last nine home games against left-handed starters, which has us taking a flier on its alternate runline for a bigger payday.
Pick: Mariners -2.5 alternate runline (+188)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.