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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/19)

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Three of the 15 games in today’s jampacked Major League Baseball slate are between division rivals, so bettors have less of a sample size of head-to-head matchups to scour over and help make informed bets. Nevertheless, we dive into three non-divisional matchups, one of which is an interleague affair among playoff hopefuls.

Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cleveland Guardians (+124) vs. New York Mets (-146)| O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)

Just three days ago, the New York Mets lost to the Tampa Bay Rays 8-5 with Justin Verlander on the mound, who was showered with boos. Things turned around in a heartbeat for the Mets, who rebounded for back-to-back wins to become just the fourth team to win a series against the MLB-best Rays this year. They look to keep that momentum going with a pitcher in a revenge spot against a team he spent more than a decade with.

Carlos Carrasco makes his first start since April 15 after he landed on the IL with right elbow swelling due to a bone chip. Given that Carrasco threw 52 pitches in his second rehab start on Sunday, he will likely not be stretched out much in this game (five innings maximum), which means the Guardians should get looks at several different arms out of the Mets bullpen. 

Carrasco has a great chance to improve his 8.56 ERA, as the Guardians have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. Josh Bell is the only Guardians regular who has ever faced Carrasco, which makes the unfamiliarity with Carrasco’s changeup that has produced a whiff percentage of 31.4% or higher every year since 2017 that much more of a weapon. 

Carrasco should only face the Guardians lineup twice, and he has held opposing hitters to a collective .243 and .258 batting average the first and second time through the order, respectively, throughout his career.

The Mets have won four straight home meetings against the Guardians and are 4-o in their last four interleague home games against a right-handed starter. This is a fair price to back New York in Carrasco’s return.

Pick: Mets ML (-146)

Arizona Diamondbacks (-178) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the biggest surprises in baseball to this point, with a 23-20 record through 43 games. However, the Pirates were playing at a 116-win pace at one point when they were 20-8, and their 3-12 record since is essentially a product of a lack of offense.

In the last 15 games, the Pirates have been held to three or fewer runs 13 times and two or fewer 11 times. That is an issue when facing Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, who leads the league with a .857 winning percentage, 1.79 FIP, 0.855 WHIP, and 8.75 strikeouts per win. Johan Oviedo opposes Gallen, and his 10.5 hits per nine 4.3 walks per nine rates suggest the Diamondbacks should have little issue building an early lead.

The Diamondbacks are 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these teams, including winning 12 of the previous 16 in Pittsburgh. And given that the Under has cashed in Gallen’s last four starts against teams from the NL Central, we are backing on a big Diamondbacks win while they keep the Pirates from scoring many runs.

Pick: Diamondbacks RL (+102)

Miami Marlins (+100) vs. San Francisco Giants (-118) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)

The San Francisco Giants lineup got deeper this week as they welcomed back Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski from IL stints. The Giants then promptly swept the Philadelphia Phillies in three games at home, scoring 17 combined runs in the three-game set after being held to three or fewer runs in four of the previous eight games.

Defending Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily this season. Alcantara ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA (.262), one year after posting the best mark of that metric (.215) of his career. Alcantara has had starts skipped because of biceps tendinitis, and it is fair to wonder if he is 100% even though he has not served an IL stint.

Alcantara does not get much run support, as entering yesterday’s series finale against the Washington Nationals, right-handed starting pitchers had a 2.75 ERA in the past 30 days against the Marlins, per Inside Edge. And Anthony DeSclafani has been one of the Giants’ best pitchers this season, with an elite walk rate in the 98th percentile. Thus, DeSclafani pitches to contact, but that is not an issue against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit contact.

The Marlins have lost nine of their last 12 in San Francisco and five consecutive times when Alcantara has started a series opener.

Pick: Giants ML (-118)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.