MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/26)
A 3-0 Wednesday has us heading into the weekend brimming with confidence. So which trio of games from a jampacked MLB slate caught our eye?
Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (-156) vs. Minnesota Twins (+132)| O/U 8 (-114/-106)
The Toronto Blue Jays have endured a brutal schedule of late, with four consecutive series (and six of their last seven) against teams with winning records. And while Toronto is somewhat reeling with 16 losses in its previous 24 games, one constant throughout that has been the stellar pitching of Kevin Gausman.
The Blue Jays have always relied on Gausman to be an innings eater, as he ranks in the top 10 in the majors with 63.0 innings pitched over ten starts. In his last four starts against teams with a winning record, he has recorded 21+ outs three times and has not allowed an earned run in two of his previous three road starts. Therefore, he should find success against a Minnesota Twins lineup that entered Thursday ranked 17th in wRC+ and 26th in BABIP since May 1. However, we do not expect the Twins to put many balls in play against Gausman, as his 11.57 K/9 rate ranks fourth-best among all qualified pitchers. In addition, per Inside Edge, Gausman has allowed a .241 OPS with two strikes this season, the second-best among all qualified starting pitchers.
The Under has cashed in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games against teams from the AL Central, and we expect that to result in the Twins struggling offensively in this series opener.
Pick: Twins Team Total Under 3.5 (-118)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+138) vs. Seattle Mariners (-164) | O/U 7 (+100/-122)
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank in the bottom five of the league in strikeout percentage (24.5%) in May. In addition, six of their players with at least 100 plate appearances have struck out at least 19.0% of the time against right-handed pitching, which means Cy Young Award candidate George Kirby should be in for a solid start.
Kirby ranks in the 34th percentile for strikeout rate but ranks in the top quarter of the league in chase rate, and his whiff percentage is higher on all of his primary pitches except for his changeup from last year. In addition, Kirby has recorded 6+ strikeouts in four of his previous five starts, despite making four of those starts on the road.
Kirby is opposed by Mitch Keller, who has shown impeccable control with zero walks to his last 48 batters faced (the best streak in baseball over the previous two weeks). In addition, Keller ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xSLG, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage and thus should be able to keep the Seattle Mariners’ runs to a premium.
The Under is 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last four interleague road games against teams with a winning record and has cashed in each of Seattle’s last four home games against teams with a winning record. Thus, we expect another pitcher’s duel tonight.
Pick: Under 7 (-122)
Miami Marlins (+124) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-146) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
No team in baseball has a longer active winning streak than the Los Angeles Angels at the moment (four straight wins). While they had a day off yesterday as the Miami Marlins wrapped up their series against the Colorado Rockies, an off-day is ill-timed, given how well they were playing. In addition, the Angels have lost both games when they have had a rest advantage against their opponents and are 6-13 in such games since 2021.
Angels southpaw Reid Detmers has made just one quality start among his eight outings, and he and Jose Suarez are the only starters in the rotation with a negative WAR. Los Angeles has lost three of Detmers’ last four starts, and this is a fade of a team that is an uninspiring 11-9 as home favorites this season.
Even if the Marlins do not hit as well as we expect, they are still the third-best team in the league (24-3) when allowing four or fewer runs, per Inside Edge. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo is capable of such an effort against an Angels lineup that has scored four or fewer runs four times in the last five games.
We expect the Marlins to win for the fifth consecutive time Luzardo has opened a series.
Pick: Marlins ML (+124)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.