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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/11)

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There has been a lot of parity among American League teams over the last several days, as just one team (the Seattle Mariners) has a winning streak longer than three games, while no team has an active losing streak longer than three games. Therefore, how do we see two of the AL’s most prominent games playing out today? We dive into those and add one pick from the NL to our trio of best bets.

    Today's Best MLB Bets

    Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

    Cleveland Guardians (+184) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-220) | O/U 8.5 (-106/-114)

    The biggest storyline surrounding this game is Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale facing his former Cleveland Guardians teammates in his second start with his new squad. The advantage in this matchup should go to the Guardians hitters, who will be familiar with Civale’s arsenal, having seen his stuff up close over the last four-and-a-half seasons. 

    Cleveland needs a better day offensively if it wants to compete with Tampa Bay, as it has scored three or fewer runs scored in nine of its last 13 games, with zero or one run in five of them. However, one thing Cleveland has done well all season is limit strikeouts, with an MLB-best 18.5% strikeout rate. Even amid their recent offensive inefficiencies, that number has only climbed to 20.2% over the last 14 days, which is the lowest among AL teams in that span. Civale has struck out four or fewer batters in five of his previous seven starts, so we expect the Guardians to put plenty of balls in play.

    We also liked what we saw out of Guardians pitcher Xzavion Curry in his last outing, as he allowed two earned runs over five innings while being stretched out as a starter (instead of using him as an opener in bullpen games) for the first time since early April. In that outing, his 13 whiffs were tied for the eighth-most of any starting pitcher that day, despite throwing just 65 pitches. 

    Cleveland is one of MLB’s best runline teams as an underdog, covering 34 of 53 games (64.2%) and an impressive 60.6% cover percentage as road dogs. Thus, we will forego the enticing moneyline odds while still expecting the Guardians to keep the game close.

    Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-122)

    Colorado Rockies (+260) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-320) | O/U 9 (-102/-120)

    We get all the reasons why these moneyline odds are so tilted in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ favor, namely the Colorado Rockies being an MLB-worst 7-22 against their division (no other team has fewer than 11 wins against divisional opponents). And lines with Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber starting still tend to be inflated, considering his ERA was north of 7.00 16 starts into the season. However, Gomber has been a different pitcher over the last two months, winning five of his previous eight starts while pitching to a 2.63 ERA. Six of Gomber’s last seven starts have been quality starts, and his Stuff+ (77), Location+ (99), and Pitching+ (94) are all respectable despite his poor metrics early.

    Dodgers righty Lance Lynn may have much better numbers on paper (97 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 108 Pitching+), but that does not take into account the impressive streak Gomber is on.

    Colorado has won one-third of its games as road underdogs but has covered the runline in 53.3% of those. Thus, we see the value in backing the Rockies with an extra 1.5 runs baked into the line.

    Pick: Rockies +1.5 (+126)

    Baltimore Orioles (+124) vs. Seattle Mariners (-146) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)

    Seattle is a red-hot 24-10 in its last 34 games (+12.15 units, 29% ROI), the best MLB record in that span. And while the Baltimore Orioles’ .657 winning percentage (23-12 record) is second-best in the AL and third-best overall in that stretch, we give the Mariners the edge, as the Orioles have played a murderous schedule with 15 of their last 16 series coming against teams .500 or better.

    Seattle has covered 60% of its games (3-2) when it has a rest advantage over its opponents and the day after an off day (9-6). Luis Castillo has won just two of his previous seven starts but has pitched to a 3.24 ERA in four starts against first-place teams, and his 1.02 WHIP in that span ranks 14th overall and eighth among AL pitchers. In addition, his 3.36 xFIP compared to his 4.29 actual FIP in that span suggests his overall numbers should be even better, and we are willing to back him against one of two teams with 71+ wins.

    Conversely, Orioles righty Kyle Gibson has the second-worst BABIP (.306) and worst ERA (5.14) of all the team’s qualified starting pitchers since June 1. He also ranks in the 29th percentile or worse in hard-hit percentage and xBA this season, and this is too tall of a task to beat the Mariners after having no days off while flying cross-country. 

    Pick: Mariners moneyline (-146)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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