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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/1)

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After a light four-game Major League Baseball schedule yesterday, September starts with a bang with a more-than-loaded 16-game slate, beginning early with the first leg of a doubleheader of an important NL Central matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. Among our three MLB best bets today, we highlight two run line plays involving American League contenders and a total involving two National League teams that may see each other in the playoffs.

      Today's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Tampa Bay Rays (-188) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+158) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100) 

      At one point, Cleveland Guardians righty Cal Quantrill won 14 consecutive decisions at Progressive Field, but those days are long gone, as he has been shelved since July 5 with right shoulder inflammation. Before the injury, Quantrill had a -1.0 WAR and is the only pitcher in the Guardians rotation with more than five starts and a negative WAR rating. With another loss, the Guardians would be seven games under .500 (matching a season-high), and that is precisely what we expect to happen when facing one of MLB’s hottest pitchers.

      Tampa Bay Rays righty Tyler Glasnow has the second-lowest ERA among all qualified starting pitchers since the All-Star Break (2.20) and also ranks third in FIP (2.64) and sixth in BABIP (.236) in that span. Glasnow is also one of 12 pitchers with a double-digit K/9 rate in the second half of the season and does a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, with a top 12 HR/9 rate (0.60) in that span.

      Going deep in games is not an issue for this innings-eater, as Glasnow has pitched six-plus innings in seven consecutive starts and completed at least seven innings in three straight. Conversely, Quantrill was tagged for six earned runs (and three home runs) in a rehab start as recently as 11 days ago and should be no match for a Rays team that is 1.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the best record in the AL.

      Pick: Rays -1.5 (-104)

      New York Yankees (+172) vs. Houston Astros (-205) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

      The New York Yankees cannot seem to avoid Justin Verlander this year, as this is his fourth start against the Bronx Bombers dating back to his time with the New York Mets. Verlander has won one, lost one, and received a no-decision through the first three matchups, but each one has been a quality start. Verlander has pitched to a 1.42 ERA in those three starts and allowed 12 total hits in the 19 innings. New York has also seemingly taken a conservative approach in those at-bats recently while looking to drive Verlander’s pitch count up, as the Yankees have combined for six walks in that span.

      This is a confident four-star play, as New York has struggled against right-handed pitching on the road all season, with the AL’s fourth-highest strikeout rate, third-worst batting average, and second-worst BABIP in that split. And now, after waiving players like Josh Donaldson and Harrison Bader, the Yankees’ youthful lineup will be overmatched by the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Conversely, Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon has pitched to a 7.71 ERA in three road starts, and his four home runs allowed through those 14 innings are concerning, considering he is not inducing ground balls at a high rate (his GO/AO ratio is 0.53 on the road).

      The Yankees have covered the run line in fewer than half of their league games (46 of 97), and we expect them to be overmatched in this series opener while the Astros benefitted from an off day yesterday.

      Pick: Astros -1.5 (+104)

      Philadelphia Phillies (-116) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)

      The Milwaukee Brewers had a nine-game winning streak thwarted with back-to-back losses to the Chicago Cubs. However, while that resulted in their second series lost in their previous eight series, the Brewers lost both of those games by one run while scoring just two total runs.

      Milwaukee should get another strong pitching performance from Freddy Peralta, who has pitched to a 1.75 ERA, 1.55 FIP, and a 5.9 K-BB ratio in his last six starts spanning 36 innings. Since August 1, Peralta is the only pitcher with 65-plus strikeouts and a sub-2.50 ERA, and he has the second-lowest OBA (.169) in that span, trailing only Pittsburgh Pirates righty Johan Oviedo (1.68).

      One could argue the Brewers are surprisingly home underdogs with such a hot pitcher on the mound. However, Zack Wheeler has dominated with a 2.68 ERA and .194 OBA in eight starts post-All-Star Break. This is a contrarian play, as the Phillies have cashed their team total Over in 16 of their last 23 games, while the Brewers have cashed their team total Over in nine of their last 11 (but not in either of their previous two).

      Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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