Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/16)
We’ve only got three more baseball weekends before we reach the playoffs.
We’re getting closer and closer to the finish line in the MLB. It’s been an extremely profitable sport throughout the season, and I’d love to finish strong by adding a little more profit over the next few weeks.
Here are three bets I’m looking at for Friday, September 16.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are still fighting for the NL East division, while the Phillies are looking to keep their ground in the NL Wild Card. What I’m getting at here is that both teams are playing for something big right now.
Max Fried will take the hill for the Braves. He’s got a 3.20 xFIP while striking out 24.3% of batters in the last month. He’s also walked 2.6% while earning 57.3% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
But his great stats don’t stop there. Fried has limited line drives to 15.9%, and the opposition has only hit 26.8% of fly balls against the left-hander.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are hitting a .152 ISOS with a .335 wOBA. However, they’ve also struck out 24.3% of the time with just 6.7% of strikeouts with their projected lineup against lefties. They’ve also hit 47.3% of grounders when the ball is put into play against lefties.
On the other hand, Ranger Suarez will get the call for the Phillies. He’s got a 4.01 xFIP in the last 30 days. Suarez, like Fried, has earned a high strikeout rate along with a high ground ball rate. Suarez has gained 61.3% of grounders while allowing just 16.3% of line drives and 22.5% of fly balls.
The Braves have succeeded against lefties between Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Travis d’Arnaud. However, the other five batters in the lineup haven’t produced consistently. I’ve got the Braves winning this game, but I like the under even more.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Seattle Mariners will pitch Robbie Ray to start tonight’s game. Ray has looked above average over the last month. He’s holding a 3.88 xFIP. He’s also struck out 28% of batters while only walking 3.4% of batters in that time frame.
The Angels, on the other hand, have a low wOBA when you take Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani out of the lineup. Trout and Ohtani have been electric lately. But Ohtani has still struck out 30% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Trout has walked just 3.7% of the time against lefties while hitting 14.3% of line drives.
The Angels will pitch Michael Lorenzen, who has a 6.89 xFIPP with 9.1% of strikeouts and 18.2% of walks through his last 22 batters.
In his last 17 plate appearances against rights, Lorenzen has allowed a .347 wOBA and an ISO of .231. The Mariners’ projected lineup hits 35% of grounders while walking 9.5% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. Seattle is getting major production from Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Cal Raleigh. Lorenzen isn’t a major strikeout pitcher, and if he’s not going to get strikeouts, we’ll see a lot of line drives and fly balls from the Mariners tonight.
Bet: Mariners (-155 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb will take the hill for the Giants tonight. He’s been very good recently, holding a 3.45 xFIP over the last month. Webb has induced 53.5% of ground balls and has walked under 6% of batters faced in that same 30-day timeframe.
Webb has kept extra-base hits down. However, lefties have a wOBA of .352 against Webb through his last 73 plate appearances against them.
Freddie Freeman is the only consistent lefty in the Dodgers lineup regarding hitting right-handed pitchers. Other lefties like Max Muncy, Joey Gallo, and Cody Bellinger have a wOBA at .255 or lower in the last 30 days against righties.
On the other hand, Dustin May will get the start for the Dodgers. He’s walking 12.2% of batters but has gained a solid ground ball rate and a low line drive rate. He’ll also take on a Giants lineup with a .293 wOBA with 27.5% of strikeouts against righties in the last month.
Therefore, I’ll take the Under in this NL West matchup.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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