Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/5)

by |

With this column, we had one of our best weeks of the season last week, hitting seven of our nine bets and several at plus-money odds. We have once again identified our best three plays of the day despite having a limited eight-game Major League Baseball slate to choose from.

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Rays (-172) vs. Boston Red Sox (+144)| O/U 9 (-104/-118)

Shane McClanahan has looked nearly invincible this season, remaining of one two pitchers in baseball with eight wins to this point, despite the fact he is coming off his first loss of the season. It is difficult to identify areas where McClanahan has struggled, given that he enters this start with an AL-leading 2.07 ERA. However, if there is ever a time to fade the southpaw, it is in a road start against a divisional rival that has mashed left-handed pitching this year.

McClanahan has pitched to a 3.03 ERA in six road starts and averaged fewer than six innings in those outings. In addition, his 9.6% walk rate is on pace to be a career-high, as is a 28.9% fly-ball rate, which could get him in trouble in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. McClanahan has recorded 18+ outs in just one of his previous four road starts and has issued multiple walks in five of seven overall. A similar lack of control will be problematic against the Red Sox, who entered Sunday with the fourth-highest walk rate and a top-9 ranking in wRC+ and BABIP against left-handed pitching. 

McClanahan is opposed by Brayan Bello, who has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and ranks in the 22nd percentile or lower in xBA and xSLG. Something is not clicking with the righty through five starts, as he has allowed seven home runs in 39 1/3 innings following a year where he allowed just one dinger in 57 1/3 innings. 

The Over is 20-9-1 in the last 30 meetings at Fenway between these teams, and we should be in for another slugfest today, given that the Over has cashed in each of Bello’s last five home starts.

Pick: Over 9 (-104)

Oakland Athletics (+150) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-178) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)

The Oakland Athletics have lost 14 of 16 games and are on pace for one of the worst 162-game records in the sport’s history, while the Pittsburgh Pirates own the major’s longest active winning streak (five games). What could go wrong?

Per Inside Edge, entering Sunday, the A’s are slugging .341 against righties since last season (second-worst in MLB), and their starting pitchers have pitched to a 9.02 ERA on the road this season, MLB’s worst mark by a wide margin. Though Pittsburgh has won just one of its last seven interleague home games, Oakland is in a different stratosphere than Texas, Toronto, or Houston, the three teams the Pirates have struggled with in that span. In addition, Pirates starter Johan Oviedo’s breaking pitches have been a huge weapon, as opposing hitters have zero hits in 16 consecutive at-bats that end with an Oviedo breaking pitch (per Inside Edge). 

Pittsburgh has been excellent at wearing down starting pitchers early, as no starter has completed six innings against it in five consecutive games. And entering Sunday, the gap between Oakland’s MLB-worst 6.70 ERA and the 29th-worst ERA, the Colorado Rockies (5.20), is bigger than the gap between the Rockies and the fifth-best team in ERA. Thus, if A’s southpaw JP Sears gets knocked out early, the Pirates should put up some crooked numbers. 

Pittsburgh entered Sunday with the fifth-best cover rate of the run line (52.5%) since last season, and we see no issue with it covering here, as long as it can avoid the hangover after an emotional series with its division rival, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pick: Pirates RL (+112)

Chicago Cubs (+136) vs. San Diego Padres (-162) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

Chicago Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks has had outstanding success against the San Diego Padres, holding current hitters to a .216/287/.287 slash line in 111 combined at-bats. And while Juan Soto has recorded four hits in ten at-bats against him, all other Padres are hitting just .198.

Hendricks has pitched just 9 ⅓ innings in two starts this year, so we are focusing on the first five innings line, given that Chicago’s relievers have the worst ERA among all NL bullpens. We also expect southpaw Blake Snell to limit the damage early after coming off his two best starts of the season, where he allowed just one earned run in 11 innings. He is on pace for his best BABIP allowed (.287) since 2018, which has helped him overcome his career-worst walk rate (13.7%).

The Cubs own the NL’s worst wRC+ over the last 14 days, and with the Padres ranking 27th in BABIP in that span, we expect a low-scoring start to this series finale.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-102)

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.