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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/17)

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A 2-1 day in our lone best bets column since the All-Star Break has us brimming with confidence entering a new week. Read on to find out which total, team total, and upset picks we have in store for Monday.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Francisco Giants (-156) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+132) | O/U 10 (-110/-110)

The Cincinnati Reds went 1-5 in their last six games against the Milwaukee Brewers, falling two games behind their division rivals in the NL Central. Cincinnati scored more than three runs just once in those two series, with OptaStats pointing out how the Reds were on the wrong side of history during one stretch.

Now the Reds face Logan Webb, who has thrown a quality start in 13 of his last 15 appearances and is coming off a complete game shutout of the Colorado Rockies. Since May 27, Webb has the second-best WAR and sixth-best xFIP (2.82) of any qualified starting pitcher in the majors.
We also do not expect the San Francisco Giants to have much offensive success against Reds southpaw Brandon Williamson, as manager Gabe Kapler typically platooning guys like Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto against lefties, despite them being two of the top five on the team in OPS (min. 200 at-bats).

The Under is 28-18-2 in games the Giants are favorites, and we expect another low-scoring affair in this series opener.

Pick: Under 10 (-110)

Detroit Tigers (-134) vs. Kansas City Royals (+114) | O/U 9.5 (-108/-112)

The Detroit Tigers send Matt Manning to the mound for the first time since combining with two relievers to no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays. In hindsight, that no-hitter was an even bigger accomplishment, given that is the only Blue Jays loss in their previous nine games. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals are 1-16 in Jordan Lyles’ 17 starts, and Lyles faces a Tigers team that is 3-0-1 in their last four road series. What could go wrong with picking the underdogs?

The general public is sure to be high on Manning after that start and will fail to recognize that was the only quality start he made in his five appearances. Manning is still on pace for his worst hard-hit percentage allowed (45.2%) in his young three-year career, and his whiff percentage and chase rate are both in the second percentile. While Kansas City ranks near or at the bottom of the league in every statistical category, the one metric they fare much better in is BABIP (21st in the league), and putting balls in play against a contact pitcher like Manning should not be an issue tonight. And while Lyles has a poor 0.60 GO/AO ratio, that should not burn him against a Tigers lineup that ranks 24th in home runs and 28th in slugging.

This line is curiously low, considering the underdogs are 1-16 in their starting pitcher’s starts, but we are not taking the bait.

Pick: Royals ML (+114)

New York Yankees (+108) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-126) | O/U 9 (-112/-108)

The Los Angeles Angels have homered in 15 consecutive games, tied for the longest streak in franchise history since 1983, and are only three behind the all-time franchise record, per Buster Olney. Through 71 games, Shohei Ohtani joined Mike Trout as the only players in Angels history to hit 22 home runs while batting .300 with 10+ stolen bases and three triples. Ohtani has homered once in four at-bats against Yankees righty Luis Severino, and Severino has been burned for 19 hits in his last 6 â…” innings, so the Angels should not miss the injured Trout too much in this one.

Severino has allowed 2+ home runs in three of his previous seven starts and a .302 OBA or worse to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. And given the following nugget Katie Sharp dug up after Severino’s last start, we are fading him at all costs tonight.

There is a reason the Yankees are underdogs to a team two games under .500, so back the Angels for a big day at the plate.

Pick: Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-115)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.