MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/3)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate has an early holiday feel, with ten games on tap, two of which are played in the afternoon window. With today’s three plays, we back a slight moneyline favorite and offer differing opinions on two team totals, but getting both at plus-money odds.
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Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (+100) vs. Texas Rangers (-118)| O/U 9 (-106/-114)
It is fair to wonder if Cristian Javier has hit a wall now that he is almost 60% of the way to his previous career-high in innings halfway through the season.
After pitching to a 2.84 ERA through his first 12 starts, Javier has posted a 7.27 ERA over his last four. Most of his troubles stem from an inability to miss bats, as he has two or fewer strikeouts in four consecutive outings. Not whiffing hitters is a dangerous way to make a living against the Texas Rangers, who lead the majors with a .327 BABIP. Javier’s BABIP is up 20% from last year to .275, and his xSLG is higher than his actual slugging percentage on all three of his primary pitches that he combines to throw 97.8% of the time.
Javier has held current Rangers hitters to a combined .200/.308/.358 slash line in 110 at-bats, with 35 of the 75 outs coming via strikeout. However, he is in nowhere the form that he made many of those starts, and we are confident that the Rangers offense will show up today despite the Under going 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Texas between these teams.
Pick: Rangers team total Over 4.5 (+100)
St. Louis Cardinals (+102) vs. Miami Marlins (-120) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
One starting pitcher has led his team to six consecutive victories in his starts, five of which have been by 2+ runs. Meanwhile, the other starting pitcher’s team in this game lost all five of his starts in June by a combined 29-13, despite three of those games coming against teams under .500. Thus, how can one justify the small -120 moneyline odds in this contest?
The Miami Marlins were humbled in a three-game road sweep at the Atlanta Braves last weekend, losing by a combined 29-7. However, that should not sour the fact that the Marlins were 28-13 leading up to this weekend since May 14, a half-game behind the Braves for the best record in baseball in that span.
The Marlins are 11 games over .500, thanks mainly to a 39-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers. Miami entered yesterday ranked third in BABIP and the top ten in OPS and wRC+ since May 14, and we expect Garrett to lead the Marlins to a seventh straight win when he toes the rubber. Thus, we are eschewing the fact that St. Louis is 16-5 in its last 21 games against Miami, as this Cardinals team is much worse than its playoff-bound teams of previous seasons.
Pick: Marlins ML (-120)
Seattle Mariners (+124) vs. San Francisco Giants (-146) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Under is 33-26-3 in the San Francisco Giants’ non-divisional games this year, and now they have the unenvious task of playing late on Sunday night in New York, then flying cross-country to be home in time for this series opener. Thus, we expect the Giants offense to look sluggish tonight, especially without two of their most feared bats in the lineup.
Seattle Mariners rookie Bryan Woo has been impressive to start his MLB career and has pitched to a 2.23 ERA since getting shelled for six runs in two innings in his debut. While the Giants rank in the top ten in the league with a .746 OPS against right-handed pitchers, that is offset by Woo’s impressive 2.98 SIERA and 33.3% strikeout rate and the fact that San Francisco is without Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto, two of their top-nine hitters in OPS against righties.
Pick: Giants team total Under 3.5 (+100)
Check out our other best bets for Monday:
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.