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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/18)

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Finishing 2-1 with our MLB Best Bets last Friday has us heading into the last two weeks of the regular season with plenty of momentum. As more teams clinch playoff spots or are eliminated from playoff contention, the lines will adjust. Bettors will have to decide which teams are motivated to play spoiler down the stretch and which teams are merely playing out the string.

      Monday's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Cleveland Guardians (-126) vs. Kansas City Royals (+108) | O/U 9 (-122/+100) 

      Kansas City Royals righty Brady Singer recorded 20-plus outs in his first three starts in August, but has registered more than 15 outs just once in the four starts since. He has allowed six runs in three of those starts and has been yanked before his 80th pitch in each of the last two.

      Singer ranks in the 12th percentile in xBA and the second percentile in hard-hit contact, which is troubling when facing a Cleveland Guardians lineup that puts the ball in play at the highest rate in the majors (18.7% strikeout rate). Furthermore, Guardians hitters have struck out 1,524 times in 8,470 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since last season, the best rate in MLB per Inside Edge.

      Singer has allowed a .357/.407/.527 slash line in 112 combined at-bats against current Guardians hitters. He was tagged for six earned runs and a season-high 13 hits the last time he faced them. In addition, Singer has a worse ERA and OBA in day games than in night games. Conversely, Guardians righty Cal Quantrill has made three consecutive quality starts this month in his first game action since July 5, pitching to a 1.50 ERA and an OBA of .164 in 18 innings.

      Cleveland out-scored the Texas Rangers 23-6 in a three-game home sweep this weekend, and considering their last three losses were by one run each, we trust the Guardians more in this series opener than Kansas City.

      Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-126)

      Philadelphia Phillies (+100) vs. Atlanta Braves (-118) | O/U 9 (-122/+100)

      The Marlins swept the Braves for the first time since 2015, and manager Brian Snitker will likely stress the need to play more consistent baseball and not limp into the playoffs, even though they have all but locked up home-field advantage. That starts with a series against a potential playoff opponent, and one they took three out of four games from just last week.

      Philadelphia Phillies righty Zach Wheeler has held current Braves to a combined .226/.262/.431 slash line in 239 combined at-bats. But his counterpart, Kyle Wright, has held current Phillies to an even more impressive .173/.296/.361 slash line in a smaller sample size (75 at-bats). Philadelphia’s only win in its last series against Atlanta was with Wright on the mound, but it was his first start in over four months. We expect him to get closer to his career-bests in strikeout percentage (23.6%), walk rate (7.2%), ERA (3.19), and xERA (3.89), all set last season.

      Atlanta is 7-3 against Philadelphia this season and has won an MLB-best 38.8% of its games when allowing five-plus runs, which makes us confident they can overcome a poor outing from Wright if he does not have his best stuff again.

      Pick: Braves Moneyline (-118)

      Seattle Mariners (-172) vs. Oakland Athletics (+144) | O/U 7.5 (-106/-114)

      Seattle Mariners rookie Bryan Woo had a respectable 3.63 ERA after his first seven starts. Since then, Woo has a 4.61 ERA and the worst xFIP (4.94) of any Mariners pitcher (min. four starts). He also has the worst K-BB% (11.4%) of any Mariners starter, and his 102 Stuff+ rating is second-worst among all Mariners pitchers who have thrown 40-plus innings in that stretch.

      Woo has not allowed an earned run in his last nine innings, but the Oakland Athletics rank in the top half of the league in BABIP (.303) in home games against right-handed pitching since August 15. He is not built to take advantage of their biggest weakness, which is a 29th-ranked strikeout rate (28.9%) in that split.

      Conversely, Oakland has won three straight games when JP Sears has toed the rubber, with two coming against teams currently occupying playoff spots in the AL (Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays). Sears has allowed just three earned runs in his previous 17 innings and has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the yard, with no home runs surrendered in his last 18 2/3 innings.

      The A’s have won just one of ten meetings with the Mariners this year, but given the circumstances, these low moneyline odds suggest an upset is in order.

      Pick: A’s Moneyline (+144)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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