Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/30)

by |

We're roughly 30 hours from the end of the MLB regular season, and the playoff scenarios have yet to be cemented yet. Both Wild Cards are up for grabs, along with a three-team race in the A.L. West. I'm dialed in on the playoff push, and two of my three bets have postseason implications. The final bet is a divisional rivalry out west between the Dodgers and Giants. Let's dive into my top three plays for Saturday. 

Today's Best MLB Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas Rangers (+116) vs. Seattle Mariners (-134) | 7.5 (-102/120)

The A.L. West division is the most intriguing race as only two of the three teams will punch their tickets to the playoff. Heading into Saturday, the Rangers lead the way at 89-71 (.556) while the Astros (88-72) and Mariners (87-73) trail by 1.0 and 2.0 games, respectively. First pitch for this pivotal matchup between the Rangers and Mariners is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. 

Andrew Heaney heads to the bump tonight while Luis Castillo gets the nod for the M's. I'm simply going to treat this like a divisional playoff game and take the under 7.5 runs. 

Look for Castillo to set the pace here and turn in a solid outing. The right-hander comes into this one at 14-8 and owns a 3.20 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Those numbers dip to 2.81 and 0.93 when throwing at T-Mobile Park. The bottom line is that Castillo was in line to win the Cy Young just a few weeks ago, and I think he brings his best stuff here. I'm riding with the under in this spot.

Bet: Under 7.5 (-120)

Houston Astros (-106) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) | 9.0 (-108/-112)

The Astros secured the win in game one last night, defeating the Diamondbacks 2-1 in nine innings. The two sides are back at it tonight and we have a pitching matchup between Justin Verlander and Merril Kelly. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

I think the oddsmakers made a mistake here. We have a pair of top-two starters starting tonight in a postseason push, and we have a total as high as 9.0? I'm locking in the under in this spot. 

Kelly comes into this game at 12-7 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. However, his ERA dips to 2.70 when pitching at home, and opponents are hitting just .182 against him. Factor in that Houston is slashing just .136/.240/.136 against him over 22 at-bats, and I think Kelly will keep them at bay. On the flip side, we have Verlander, who has turned into a postseason mercenary. The veteran has posted three quality starts over his last four outings. There's a ton on the line here, and I expect both starters to be excellent. I'm riding with the under.

Bet: Under 9.0 (-112)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-178) vs. San Francisco Giants (+150) | 8.0 (-118/104)

The big news coming out of Friday was that the Giants fired Gabe Kapler. San Francisco will finish up their regular season against Los Angeles, which holds the second-best record in the National League. First pitch for this rivalry matchup is set for 9:05 p.m. ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. 

I'm not going to overthink this game and I'm riding with the Dodgers on the run line. We have a pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Tristan Beck. Solely based on the names, you'd lean the Dodgers here. 

But, if you're looking for more statistical data, then you'll quickly gravitate toward the fact that Kershaw has been putting together a dominant year. The southpaw enters this game at 13-4 and owns a 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's sneakily putting together a masterful 2023 campaign. Kershaw should mow down this San Francisco lineup that's ranked just 27th in team batting average (.236) and 25th in OPS (.697). In my opinion, this is a tune-up game and we should see the Dodgers stretch this lead out by at least two runs. 

Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-111)

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App