Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/17)
We’ve got some exciting matchups on the horizon for today’s MLB slate.
Every game is a bit more meaningful as we approach the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, our goal is to finish the season with a little bit more profit.
Here are three bets to profit with on Saturday in the MLB.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee escaped the Yankees yesterday with a 7-6 victory. Now they’ll have Brandon Woodruff on the mound for tonight’s game.
Woodruff has a 3.55 xFIP over the last 30 days while striking out 28.9% of batters. He’s limited his walks, and while the opposition has an above-average ISO, the Yankees mainly have four bats that can hit for power against Woodruff. That leaves five bats that have little potential if any.
New York’s projected lineup is hitting a .171 ISO and wOBA of .286 against righties over the last 30 days with 22.3% of strikeouts.
On the other hand, Jameson Taillon will man the mound for the Yankees. He’s struck out just 19.2% of batters while allowing 22.2% of line drives when balls are batted into play. Taillon isn’t a high-ground ball pitcher and has struggled against righties, allowing a wOBA of .343 with an ISO of .230.
The righties in the Milwaukee lineup have combined to hit a .218 ISO with a wOBA of .322. Those righties include Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe, Andrew McCutchen, and Tyrone Taylor.
I like Milwaukee’s matchup better.
Bet: Brewers (-110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves pulled away from the Philadelphia Phillies in the 8th inning. The Phillies had led 2-1 in the 8th inning and ultimately lost 7-2.
Atlanta certainly has the better bullpen, but the Phillies will pitch Aaron Nola, who can go deep in tonight’s game.
Nola has had a 2.64 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 32.2% of batters over that same time frame and has only walked 2.6%.
Meanwhile, against righties, the Braves’ projected lineup is hitting a .173 ISO with a wOBA of .311 in the last month. They’re also striking out 27% of the time during the previous 30 days. Nola should have a high strikeout performance in this game.
On the other hand, Jake Odorizzi will get the call for the Braves. He’s the weakest link in the Braves rotation. He has a 4.48 xFIP with under 40% of ground balls induced when balls are batted into play.
The Phillies are smacking righties, hitting a .221 ISO with a wOBA of .361 using their projected lineup in the last month against righties.
I’ll back the Phillies on the road in this exciting NL East matchup.
Bet: Phillies (-110 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
It’s Shohei Ohtani day in Los Angeles. Ohtani has a 4.61 xFIP, but he’s still struck out 23.7% of batters over the last 30 days. Only lefties are hitting for a little power, hitting an ISO of .188 over their last 37 plate appearances.
Only Cal Raleigh and Jake Lamb are lefties hitting with power against righties in the Seattle lineup over the last 30 days. Both of those batters are hitting towards the end of the lineup.
Meanwhile, George Kirby will get the start for the Mariners. The rookie should be able to go toe-to-toe with Ohtani. Kirby has a 2.96 xFIP. He’s also struck out 27.8% of batters while only walking 1.3%. On top of that, Kirby has induced 53.6% of grounders while allowing just 14.3% of line drives when the ball is batted into play.
Kirby will have to try and pitch around Mike Trout and Ohtani, but other than that, the Angels’ lineup is weak.
I’ll take the under in this matchup.
Bet: Under 7 (+105 at DraftKings)
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