Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/24)
The hype has been real in the MLB throughout the last week.
Albert Pujols hit homers 699 and 700 last night against the Dodgers with his old team. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge of the Yankees is looking for his 61st homer of the season to tie Roger Marris for the American League record.
The Mets and Braves are also in a heated NL East pennant race while the NL and AL Wild Cards are still trying to take shape. This is why we watch baseball!
Anyway, we went 2-1 with our plays yesterday. Let’s look to earn some more profit with today’s picks.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves have lost two straight to the Phillies on the road. But I have a good feeling that they’ll get one back against the Phillies today.
Bailey Falter will take the mound for the Phillies. He’s a lefty with a 4.34 xFIP through the last 30 days. Falter isn’t getting high strikeouts, and he’s allowing 24.1% of line drives over the previous month when the ball is put into play.
Atlanta is currently hitting 24% of line drive against lefties with their projected lineup in the last 30 days and should have that same success against Falter, who often doesn’t earn strikeouts or ground balls.
On the other hand, it’ll be Kyle Wright on the mound for the Braves. Wright has had a 3.70 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s earned over 22% of strikeouts and nearly 70% of ground balls when balls are hit into play over the previous month.
The Phillies have hit 47.8% of ground balls against righties over the last 30 days, giving Wright an excellent matchup.
Let’s take the Braves to get a win today.
Bet: Braves (-130 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
The Angels will send out left-hander Reid Detmers to the mound tonight. He’s limited line drives under 20% and has kept his ISO numbers down against both sides of the plate over the last month. Detmers isn’t getting a high strikeout rate and is inducing under 40% of grounders, but he’ll take on a Twins lineup that still has a .285 wOBA against lefties.
The projected lineup also has 49.5% of ground balls hit, and just over 17% of line drives against lefties over the last month.
On the flip side, Joe Ryan will get the start for the Twins. He’s struck out 28.2% of batters faced over the last 30 days. Like Detmers, Ryan has limited line drives under 20% when the ball is put into play. He’s going to face an Angels lineup that has struck out 28.8% of the time against righties over the last month.
That same projected lineup has hit under 20% of line drives against righties too.
I’ll take the under in a game between two up-and-coming young pitchers.
Bet: Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks will pitch Merrill Kelly for tonight’s game against the Giants. Kelly has a 4.26 xFIP but has struck out 26.8% of batters faced over the last 30 days.
Kelly also has a BABIP of .224 despite struggling against lefties. Against lefties, he’s allowed a .396 wOBA and ISO of .377 in his last 59 plate appearances.
However, only Joc Pederson has been consistent a consistent left-handed hitter for the Giants over the last month. Kelly should be able to escape against a San Francisco lineup that has struck out 27.5% of the time against righties in the previous 30 days.
Meanwhile, Alex Cobb will make another start for the Giants. Cobb has a 3.55 xFIP over the last 30 days and has induced 57.7% of ground balls over that time frame when balls are put into play.
He’s allowed a .000 ISO against his last 46 lefties. He’ll face eight lefties in the Arizona lineup tonight. Don’t expect much out of Arizona’s lineup against Cobb.
I’ll also take the Under 7.5 in this one.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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