Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/11)
It was another good day yesterday after we finished 2-1 with a +115 cashing! Winning two of three has been a theme over the last couple of weeks. We’ll absolutely take it!
Here are three more bets I like for today’s slate in the MLB.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
The Guardians are escaping the Minnesota Twins. They’ve avoided two disasters in the late innings and have earned two incredible victories over the Twins. Tonight, they’ll go for the sweep against the Twins, which would really help them push past Minnesota in the AL Central standings.
The Guardians will send out their best pitcher and ace, Shane Bieber. Bieber has a 3.00 xFIP and struck out 27.4% of batters in the last 30 days. He’s limited walks to 3.7% and has induced nearly 55% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
Bieber will face a Twins lineup that is hitting a .111 ISSO and wOBA of .268 against righties in that same time frame. Minnesota has also struck out nearly 25% of the time in the last month using their projected lineup in the previous month against righties.
On the flip side, it’ll be Josh Winder for the Twins. Winder hasn’t pitched for the Twins recently, but throughout the season, he’s put together a 5.62 xFIP. He’s been bad against righties, giving up a .348 wOBA and ISO of .210.
The righty will have to face a Guardians lineup that has struck out just 15.4% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. Plus, the middle of the order has a lot of ability against righties between Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez.
Let’s roll with the Guardians on the moneyline.
Bet: Guardians (-155 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
The Arizona Diamondbacks will play their final game of the weekend series against the Rockies. It’ll be Zac Gallen on the mound for the Diamondbacks. Gallen hasn’t allowed a run in 41.1 innings of work. He’s looking to break Orel Hershiser’s MLB record.
Having to play in Coors Field won’t be easy, but I will trust Gallen. He’s got a 2.93 xFIP with 32.5% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’ll also take on a Rockies lineup with a .112 ISO in the previous 30 days.
Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner will take the hill for the Rockies. He has a 5.10 xFIP but has struck out 21.6% of batters over the last 30 days. Like Gallen, he’s been able to limit line drives. Feltner has been much worse against righties as a righty but will probably have to face a lineup with seven lefties.
I’ll take the under in Coors Field.
Bet: Under 11 (-115 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners
We didn’t see many runs yesterday. But that will change tonight.
Marco Gonzales will take the hill for the Mariners. He’s got a 5.23 xFIP with just 8.9% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’s limited walks but will take on a Braves team that demolishes lefties.
In the last 30 days, Atlanta has been hitting a .377 wOBA with 11.4% of walks.
Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi will get the start for the Astros. He’s also got an xFIP above 5 over the last 30 days. Righties are hitting a .405 wOBA and ISO of .257, while lefties are hitting a .245 ISO over the previous month against Odorizzi.
Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and Eugenio Suarez are the three bats with power that should do damage against Odorizzi.
Let’s take the over in Seattle.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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