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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/10)

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Wednesday is a popular getaway day around Major League Baseball, and today is no exception, with nine of the 15 games being played in the afternoon window.

Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Miami Marlins (+132) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-156)| O/U 9 (-105/-115)

Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly has had three starts allowing four or more walks this season, a big reason he ranks in the 19th percentile in walk rate. However, given that the Miami Marlins are the least patient team at the plate in the majors with a 6.6% walk rate, we do not expect those issues to plague him much in this start.

The Marlins team total is 20-15-2 to the Under this season, including cashing in the first game of this series. Kelly will likely feel rejuvenated not having to face a division rival. Four of Kelly’s seven starts have come against NL West teams, and he has allowed five earned runs in 19 innings (2.37 ERA) in the other three starts. Kelly is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three career starts against the Marlins, but he is still plagued by a 2019 start against them where he allowed seven earned runs in six innings. Since then, Kelly has allowed six earned runs in 11 1/3 innings to the Marlins, but since the Under has cashed in each of the previous five meetings between these teams, we expect that to result in another low-scoring output from Miami.

Pick: Marlins Team Total Under 4 (-120)

Toronto Blue Jays (+100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-118) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)

Kevin Gausman and Zach Wheeler may be the aces of their respective staffs, but each is coming off their worst starts of the season. Gausman allowed eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Boston Red Sox after going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA in six starts against them last season. And while he entered that start with 11+ strikeouts in three of his previous four starts, he now faces a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that does damage when they make contact, as evidenced by their MLB-leading .329 BABIP.

Facing Toronto should not be viewed as a walk in the park for Wheeler, either. The Blue Jays have arguably the deepest lineup from 1-9 in baseball. Per Sportsnet Stats, Kevin Kiermaier entered the week tied for the MLB lead in total bases from the No. 9 spot. In addition, have a look at how Bo Bichette ranks among all MLB shortstops.

Wheeler has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his previous four starts and is on pace for a similar stat line against the hot-hitting Blue Jays. The Over has cashed in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games and is 10-4 in the previous 14 meetings in Philadelphia between these teams. Expect another slugfest to break out today.

Pick: Blue Jays-Phillies Over 8.5 (-102)

New York Mets (-176) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+148) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)

There was a lot of buzz surrounding New York Mets righty Justin Verlander’s first start, as he and Max Scherzer were the third pair of teammates to ever have three or more Cy Youngs in the same rotation. However, Verlander looked rusty in his first start of the season, needing 20 pitches to get out of the first inning and surrendering back-to-back home runs against the Detroit Tigers. While Verlander did settle down from there to allow five total hits over five innings, it will likely be a couple of starts until we see his pitch count reach the 90s (he threw 79 pitches in his first start).

This wager is not as much of a belief in the Cincinnati Reds offense as it is an indictment of the Mets offense. Last year, the Mets finished fourth in runs and seventh in OPS, but rank 17th or worsein both categories this year. Thus, we would not bank on Verlander getting much run support against Reds righty Hunter Greene, especially since slugger Pete Alonso is in a 5-for-30 slump in May and has not gotten protection in the lineup all season, with the Mets hitting just .236 as a team. In addition, Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks ninth or better in xFIP and WAR, so we do not mind making this a nine-inning play against a team that is 3-12 in its last 15 instead of limiting the wager to the first five innings.

Pick: Reds ML (+148)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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