MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (6/7)
Two of today’s 15 Major League Baseball games are in the afternoon window, giving bettors a few opportunities to cash bets early. We offer our best bet for one of those games while diving into two other games on the schedule between division rivals.
Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (-102) vs. San Diego Padres (-116)| O/U 8 (-102/-120)
In many ways, 2022 was a career year for Michael Wacha, starting with his 11-2 record. However, he has followed that up with another tremendous start to this season, with better FIP, H/9, and K/9 rates. And since April 21, his 1.73 ERA is the third-best among qualified starters. However, regression should be coming as Wacha ranked 54th in xFIP in that span entering Tuesday, with a big reason being an average 16.3% K-BB %.
We prefer to overlook Wacha’s hot recent stretch in favor of his lack of success against current Seattle Mariners hitters, who have combined for a .448/.495/.770 slash line in 87 at-bats against him. Five Mariners (Ty France, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez, and AJ Pollock) all have batting averages of at least .385 and OPSs of 1.059 or higher (minimum ten at-bats) against Wacha, so Seattle has flexibility in the lineup with how to manage hitters who have done damage against the righty.
The Mariners rank 20th or worse in wRC+ and OPS in road games this year, but the Over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in San Diego between these teams. Thus, despite Wacha’s solid start, we are getting an excellent price to back the Over on Seattle’s team total.
Pick: Mariners Team Total Over 3.5 (-124)
New York Mets (+108) vs. Atlanta Braves (-126) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
Charlie Morton has lost three consecutive starts, and his ERA has risen from 2.85 to 3.62 in that span. However, he has also allowed three or fewer earned runs in two of those starts, and we believe he will rise to the occasion with Max Scherzer toeing the rubber on the opposite side.
Morton’s swing-and-miss stuff has been promising of late. He recorded more than five strikeouts in just two of five starts in April but has since registered 6+ K’s in five of six starts. That includes a six-strikeout performance at Citi Field on May 1. Morton has recorded 53 strikeouts in 170 combined at-bats against current Mets hitters, and that 31.2% strikeout rate is significantly higher than his 26.8% career average.
Conversely, Scherzer has allowed a .244/.283/.479 slash line in 213 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters. And the early season struggles are well behind Scherzer, as he has pitched to a 2.23 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in his last seven starts. And though he still has a 4.85 road ERA this year, he has allowed just two earned runs in his previous 12 road innings with a 7:1 K:BB ratio.
The Under has cashed in each of New York’s last five games against a right-handed starter and is 3-0-1 in Morton’s previous four Wednesday starts. We expect a pitcher’s duel between these bitter division rivals today.
Pick: Under 9 (-110)
San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Colorado Rockies (+168) | O/U 11 (-110/-110)
While Logan Webb’s 3-1 record and 4.59 ERA in six career road starts against the Colorado Rockies is not the most inspiring, he has been on fire at Coors Field lately. In 2022, Webb won both of his starts at Coors Field last year while pitching to a 2.19 ERA and minuscule 0.568 WHIP.
Webb’s 1.95 ERA since April 21 is the fourth-lowest of any qualified starting pitcher, and his 3.01 xFIP is the lowest of any of the three pitchers ahead of him, despite having the highest HR/FB rate (11.8%) of the four. Long balls should not be an issue against a Rockies team that has hit the fifth-fewest home runs in the league (49).
Webb is backed by an offense that leads the majors in BABIP (.368) over the last 14 days and should provide the ace with plenty of run support. Given that San Francisco has won 14 of its last 17 road games against Colorado, we feel great about laying the -1.5 runs in this middle game of a three-game series.
Pick: Giants RL (-134)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.