MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/2)
Few would argue that this year’s Major League Baseball trade deadline was as exciting as those we have seen in years past, and maybe that is because playoff expansion has kept more teams in the mix and more reluctant to sell. However, moves like Justin Verlander to the Houston Astros could have enormous ramifications in October, and it will be exciting to see how all the players who were dealt adjust to their new settings.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-124) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+106) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)
Perhaps Detroit Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez did not want to pay the hefty California state income tax, as he reportedly invoked his no-trade clause to veto a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and stay with his current team. Many view Rodriguez as trending downward, as a seven-start span in which he has allowed 20 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings has raised his ERA from 1.57 to 2.95. However, we cannot ignore Rodriguez’s 2.68 ERA in road games and 2.06 ERA in nine day games this season, so he is set up perfectly in this early afternoon tilt.
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 24th in wRC+, 25th in OPS, and dead-last in ISO against left-handed pitchers in home games this season. Meanwhile, Pirates righty Osvaldo Bido has lasted more than four innings in just two of six starts this season. That is not good news for Pirates backers, as their relievers rank in the bottom ten in ERA and have the fourth-worst FIP in the NL over the last two months.
The Tigers are an AL-Central best 17-19 in interleague games this season, and a respectable 5-4 as road favorites, so we expect them to earn a split of this mini two-game series.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-124)
Baltimore Orioles (+11o) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-130) | O/U 8.5 (-114/-106)
Toronto Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a .308/.388/.720 slash line in 91 combined at-bats to current Baltimore Orioles hitters. However, he has turned a corner nicely from a disappointing season last year, so we will overlook his prior history against the AL East rivals. Kikuchi’s ERA is 1.33 runs lower, and his WHIP is 1.27 compared to 1.52 at the same time as last season (through 20 starts). He pitched to a 3.10 ERA over his previous 11 starts and allowed two earned runs in his 16 innings, and he does a great job keeping the ball in the yard as he enters this start with no home runs allowed in his previous 18 1/3 innings. That is crucial when facing an Orioles team that has homered in nine straight games, the longest active streak in baseball.
Kikuchi’s curveball has been an outstanding weapon for the last three months, generating a 31.7% whiff percentage and 26.1% chase percentage since May. Kikuchi induced 16 whiffs in his previous start, and the following tweet from Thomas Hall has us excited about his secondary pitches entering this start.
Kikuchi has the fourth-most strikeouts by a Blue Jays lefty through 21 games in franchise history, per StatsCentre. We cannot back the Blue Jays moneyline, given their poor 7-1 head-to-head record against Baltimore this season, but that does not mean we cannot back Kikuchi to pitch well.
Pick: Orioles Total Under 3.5 (+120)
Tampa Bay Rays (-104) vs. New York Yankees (-112) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has been heavily scrutinized over the last 24 hours after not doing much to improve the team at the trade deadline. The team added zero hitters to a lineup that entered yesterday ranked 23rd in OPS and 29th in batting average. To put into perspective how poorly they’ve hit, Gleyber Torres leads the team with a .255 batting average, while ten other teams collectively top that. The following tweet puts into perspective how historically bad of a hitting team this Yankees club is.
New York’s only chance of success in this game is Gerrit Cole matching zeros with Shane McClanahan. However, Cole has just two wins in 17 career starts against Tampa Bay, and we do not expect him to outduel the Rays’ ace with the worst supporting cast in his pinstripe career backing him.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-104)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.