MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/30)
Just eight Major League Baseball teams are in action on a small Thursday slate tomorrow, so we should see plenty of teams empty the tank and use all that is at their disposal to get a win before an off-day tomorrow. Be sure to get your MLB bets in early today, as nine games have first pitch times of 4:10 E.T. or earlier.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres (-104) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-112) | O/U 9 (-128/+104)
The San Diego Padres send lefty Rich Hill to the mound looking to beat the St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber match of this three-game series. However, we cannot be confident in the Padres’ chances, as they are 0-4 since acquiring Hill at the trade deadline, losing by a combined 21-6. However, given San Diego’s relatively short -105 moneyline odds, oddsmakers must think the Padres are due to put up runs against Miles Mikolas, and rightfully so, as Mikolas is winless in his last seven starts while pitching to a 6.38 ERA.
Mikolas’ ERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher after the All-Star Break than before, and his hard-hit percentage (41.1%) and strikeout rate (16.2%) are each the worst of his five-year career. Conversely, Hill ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in barrels, xSLG, and xBA, so we expect a slugfest in this early afternoon tilt. FanDuel is one of the only shops offering an O/U of 9.0 runs in this matchup (most others are at 9.5), but we do not mind paying up slightly for the extra half-run of insurance.
Pick: Over 9 (-128)
Milwaukee Brewers (-112) vs. Chicago Cubs (-104) | O/U 7 (-110/-110)
The Milwaukee Brewers were close to matching their 11-game winning streak from two years ago, as their nine-game winning streak ended with yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs. During the winning streak, Milwaukee bludgeoned its opponents, with more 4+ run victories (six) than one-run wins (three).
Chicago Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks has good career numbers against Milwaukee, with a .211/.276/.376 slash line allowed in 114 combined at-bats to current Brewers hitters. However, Brandon Woodruff’s numbers against the opposition are just as good, with a .221/.282/.423 slash line in 104 combined at-bats to current Cubs hitters. We trust Woodruff more, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his first six starts of the season. In addition, the Cubs are overvalued despite going 10-1-1 in their last 12 series, as just two of those series wins have come against winning teams.
Milwaukee is 12 games over .500 against division rivals (25-13), something only two other teams in baseball can say. In addition, the Brewers are 12-9 as road favorites this year, and we expect them to get back to their winning ways today.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-112)
Oakland Athletics (+225) vs. Seattle Mariners (-275) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)
The Seattle Mariners have owned the Oakland Athletics this year, going 8-1 against them (their only loss came yesterday when starting pitcher George Kirby was a late scratch) and out-scoring them by 29 runs. And while three of those head-to-head wins have come by one run, we are still laying the -1.5 runs to make the value more enticing, as the Mariners are an MLB-best 25-7 since July 25, with 19 of those wins coming by 2+ runs.
Seattle’s Bryce Miller has failed to record 18 outs in nine of his last ten starts. However, Seattle’s bullpen has been lights out, entering Tuesday with a 2.60 ERA and 3.11 FIP with a 10.50 K/9 rate since July 25. Meanwhile, Julio Rodriguez was scratched from the lineup yesterday but should continue to propel the Mariners’ offense if he plays today against Oakland and its bullpen game, starting with attacking Zach Neal and 1.87 WHIP and 6.60 ERA in seven appearances. At the same time that Seattle’s bullpen ranks as one of MLB’s best, Oakland’s relievers have combined for a 4.86 ERA and 4.49 FIP, with an even worse 5.09 xFIP.
Seattle is 37-15 in its last 52 overall (+17.30 units, 23% ROI), but we expect it to cruise to another easy victory today.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-134)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.