MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/9)
It has been a good last couple of days for favorites in Major League Baseball, as they are 18-9 overall, and went 11-5 on Tuesday. Totals have been a little more evenly split, with Unders going 9-6-1 yesterday. How will today’s 15-game slate play out today?
Today's Best MLB Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays (-144) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+122) | O/U 8 (-106/-114)
Toronto Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman has finished top six in the Cy Young voting for the last two years and is likely headed for his best finish ever (he is currently +600 to win the Cy Young at DraftKings) this year. He faces a short-handed Cleveland Guardians team without the injured Josh Naylor, who leads the team in average (.306) and RBIs (79). The Guardians lineup would be even further decimated if they were without Jose Ramirez if MLB upholds its three-game suspension it issued Monday (Ramirez is currently appealing).
Gausman leads the league in strikeouts (177), K/9 (12.1), and FIP (2.79), one year after his 2.38 FIP also was the major’s best. He also leads the AL in WAR among full-time pitchers (we exclude Shohei Ohtani for this reason) and is one of six pitchers since 2022 (min. 195 IP) with a K/9 rate of 9.5 or higher and a BB/9 rate of less than 2.0, as Louis Addeo-Weiss pointed out on Twitter.
While we would love to back the Blue Jays moneyline with their ace on the mound, Gausman receives just 3.45 runs per game of support, the lowest in the American League. Thus, we expect Guardians rookie Logan Allen to build off the quality start thrown in his last outing and improve the 3.59 ERA he has pitched to in games against non-divisional opponents.
Pick: Under 8 (-114)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-132) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+112) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 7-22 in their last 29 games and are still searching for their first win since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers are an NL-best 20-9 in that same stretch and were 7-2 in their last nine series leading up to this NL West clash. But L.A.’s low -132 moneyline odds seem too fishy, so we instead are backing its team total given its success against Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly.
Kelly has somewhat exorcized the Dodgers’ demons and held them to two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over two starts earlier this year. However, Kelly is still 0-10 with a 5.45 ERA in 14 starts against L.A. and allowed a .306/.378/.511 slash line in 186 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters. Thus, a Dodgers lineup that ranks first in MLB in wRC+, on-base percentage, OPS, and wOBA since July 1 should have no issue battering him again.
The Dodgers’ team total Over is 66-42 in their last 108 games (+18.25 units, 15% ROI), and we expect it to cash again tonight.
Pick: Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-122)
San Diego Padres (-130) vs. Seattle Mariners (+110) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-120)
Yu Darvish’s season has been good news/bad news to this point. The bad news is he is on pace for his worst ERA (4.41) since 2018 and his worst FIP (4.10) since 2019. However, he is well past an illness that sidelined him for a few weeks this summer and has returned strong, especially lately. Darvish has thrown quality starts in four of his last five appearances while holding the top two highest-scoring teams in the league (Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers) to two runs over 13 innings in his previous two.
Darvish has had great success against current Seattle Mariners hitters over a small sample size, allowing a .156/.236/.235 slash line in 64 combined at-bats. We expect him to outduel Mariners rookie and top pitching prospect Emerson Hancock, who makes his MLB debut today. Seattle scratched fellow rookie Bryan Woo late last night, which is why the odds for this game were taken off the board (San Diego was a small -120 moneyline favorite).
Seattle may be 23-10 in its last 33 games (+10.9 units, 27% ROI), but San Diego is a rightful favorite with a hot pitcher leading the way tonight.
Pick: Padres moneyline (-130)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.