MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win AL Central (2020)

by Mike Spector |
Jul 20, 2020

Entering the 2019 season, the Cleveland Indians had to feel good about their chances to win another AL Central division title. They had won three straight division championships and 90+ games in each of the last four seasons.

However, the new-look Minnesota Twins crashed the party in 2019. They won 101 games en route to their first division title since 2010. The eight-game gap between them and the second-place Indians was the third-biggest of any division race in baseball last year. As a result, the Twins enter the season as the favorites in the AL Central for the first time in a while.

Can the Indians reclaim their throne as division champs? Will the Chicago White Sox be this year’s surprise champion after a busy offseason? Can the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers rebound from disappointing 2019 campaigns?

Throughout the month we will be previewing every division in Major League Baseball. In this article, we take a look at each team’s odds to win the AL Central division and choose our best bet of the bunch. And check out our consensus odds to win the AL Central here.

Odds to win the American League Central Division (odds courtesy of BetMGM)

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Minnesota Twins (-159)

The Minnesota Twins had a clear plan of how to end their nine-year drought as AL Central champions in 2019: hit home runs. The Twins bashed their way to a league-best 307 home runs, and their 939 runs scored were second-best. Eight Twins hit 22 or more home runs last season, and of them only Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are not on the roster this season.

Minnesota added more power to their lineup by signing former MVP Josh Donaldson to a four-year contract. Donaldson has hit 33 or more home runs in four of the last five seasons.

All the home runs aside, the Twins would not have won 101 games last year if they did not get any help from the pitching staff. Twins starters finished ninth in the league with a 4.18 ERA. Minnesota bolstered its rotation in the offseason adding Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. Those three will fill out the rotation behind ace Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi.

Cleveland Indians (+300)

The Cleveland Indians were not as active in the offseason as the Twins, but have every bit the talent to contend for the division. Cleveland’s biggest move was trading ace Corey Kluber to the Rangers after an injury-plagued 2019. In return, they acquired outfielder Delino Deshields and reliever Emmanuel Clase.

If there was one area where the Indians could afford a bit of a hit it was in their starting rotation. The Indians still possess one of the league’s best trios in Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland’s rotation was fourth-best with a 3.79 ERA last year.

Pitching is clearly Cleveland’s best chance to win a division title. Their offense lacks the pop that the Twins have, as they ranked 15th in runs scored and 16th in home runs respectively. However, as the Washington Nationals showed last year dominant pitching can take you very far.

Chicago White Sox (+320)

Of all the teams in baseball, perhaps no team went through a bigger transformation in the offseason than the White Sox. Chicago added the key bats of Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Nomar Mazara to the lineup. In addition, veterans Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez look to anchor the starting rotation behind ace Lucas Giolito.

The White Sox have such an interesting blend of veterans and youth. How successful Chicago will be in 2020 will depend largely on how well youngsters like rookie Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez play. Robert is the favorite to take home the American League Rookie of the Year award, as he will likely man centerfield from day one.

Chicago’s offensive statistics in 2019 are somewhat of an anomaly. They finished eighth in the league with a .261 team batting average but 24th in the league in runs scored. That is the biggest reason why the White Sox were so aggressive in the offseason, looking to acquire big bats to drive in the guys that get on base often.

Detroit Tigers (+8000)

The Detroit Tigers have been trending downwards the last three seasons. They have lost 98 or more games each of the last three years, including a league-high 114 games last year. A rebuild is clearly in place and the additions of C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop will not be enough to elevate Detroit to contender status.

Kansas City Royals (+8000)

Along with Detroit, the Kansas City Royals were another AL Central team that lost more than 100 games a year ago. Their 2015 World Series championship seems like decades ago and even odds of +8000 are not enticing enough to bet on the Royals to contend in the AL Central.

Conclusion

With the 60-game shortened season comes an added emphasis on how well you play against your division. Teams usually play 47% of their games against their division rivals. This year, that number balloons to 66%.

Though the Twins won the division by eight games last year, they bettered Cleveland’s division record by just two games. Minnesota went 50-26 against the AL Central while Cleveland was 48-28. In addition, the Indians held a 10-9 head-to-head record against Minnesota.

That being said, Cleveland’s +300 odds represents a tremendous value in what is sure to be a wild and crazy season. Twins star Miguel Sano has already tested positive for the coronavirus, which may potentially hinder him and other teammates during the season.

Cleveland is entering 2020 as the “forgotten team” in the division. The Twins may bash the league’s most home runs yet again. The White Sox made all the offseason headlines. And the Indians will simply go about their business in 2020, pitching well, getting timely hitting and doing what they need to do to reclaim the division crown.

PICK: Cleveland Indians to Win the AL Central (+300)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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