MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win AL Cy Young Award (2020)
One has to go back all the way to 1992 to find the last time a starting pitcher did not win the American League Cy Young Award. That year, Oakland Athletics closer Dennis Eckersley led all of baseball with 51 saves while posting a 1.91 ERA.
Thus, when looking to place a futures bet on who will take home the Cy Young, make sure to scour over the odds of starting pitchers first and foremost. However, in a season where just 60 games will be played, does this put more added emphasis on teams’ bullpens? Is this the year a reliever breaks a 28-year drought and wins the Cy Young? Or should we still be focusing on starting pitchers who will roughly make 12 starts?
In this article, we use odds from BetMGM to discuss our best bet and favorite value play to win the American League Cy Young Award. You can also view our consensus odds for the AL Cy Young here.
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Odds to Win the 2020 American League Cy Young Award (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Best Bet: Shane Bieber (+900)
Shane Bieber enjoyed a breakout year in 2019, just his second year in the majors pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Bieber was named to the American League All-Star team and even won All-Star Game MVP honors. Though his innings nearly doubled since his rookie year, Bieber’s performance did not waver. He went 15-8 while posting a 3.28 ERA which ranked fifth in the league and 16th overall. His 5.6 WAR ranked eighth in all of baseball, and he finished third with 259 strikeouts. All of this earned him a fourth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.
Bieber is an innings eater that is valuable in a condensed season when teams only get six total days off. He tied for the major league lead with three complete games and two shutouts.
While the Tampa Bay Rays have a trio of capable starters who could win the award at the top of the odds leaderboard, there is also a chance that these players could all wind up stealing votes from each other. Bieber has teammates Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco to contend with, but none have the upside that Bieber does.
Because the season has been shortened to 60 games, 40 of those games (66.6%) come against one’s divisional opponents. That is good news for Bieber and the Indians pitching staff, as they get to feast on a number of meetings with the lowly Royals and Tigers. Yes, the Minnesota Twins have one of the most potent lineups in the league. However, it also helps one’s Cy Young candidacy to face powerful lineups in key situations. Bieber gets a great opportunity to impress voters in an important September series against the Twins that may go a long way in deciding the AL Central division champion.
Best Value Bet: Sean Manaea (+10000)
It is rare to find the ace of the staff of a potential contender getting +10000 odds, but that is exactly what we find with the Oakland A’s Sean Manaea. Oakland is a trendy pick to dethrone the Houston Astros and win the AL West. Should they do so, that would likely catch the eye of many postseason awards voters. In addition, there may even be some favoritism to give A’s players the nod in this situation since the Astros cheating scandal left a bad taste in many voters’ mouths.
The Athletics front office and coaching staff clearly trusts Manaea, as it was he they handed the ball to in the one-game Wild Card playoff against Tampa Bay last year. Though Manaea was outdueled by Charlie Morton, that experience was invaluable for Manaea as every start this year will take on more of a playoff feel.
Manaea only made five regular-season starts last year as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery in the prior offseason. However, Manaea made the most of those five starts, posting a 4-0 record and a 1.21 ERA. His 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings last year is exactly the same as two-time Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander’s career average. The fact that Manaea was able to be lights out from the start bodes well for a condensed season where teams can ill-afford bad stretches.
Prior to 2019, Manaea posted back-to-back 12 win seasons in 2017 and 2018. His 3.59 ERA in 2018, his last full season was the best of his career. Manaea proved his shoulder complications are well behind him and that his best pitching may still be to come. His stuff is electric, and he plays on a team that will give him great run support. At +10000 odds, Sean Manaea’s upside is too good to pass up.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.