MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win AL East (2020)
The 60-game MLB season in 2020 should in theory bring more teams into the equation to challenge as division winners. That is much less time a team needs to be competitive for, as stronger teams are more likely to rise to the top over 162 games.
While there are certain to be many balanced divisions this season, the American League East does not appear to be one of them. The Baltimore Orioles have lost 108+ games in each of the last two seasons and figure to be one of MLB’s worst teams in 2020. In Toronto, the Blue Jays are building around a young core but do not appear to have all the pieces to contend just yet. And the Boston Red Sox are usually major players in the AL East but appeared to wave the white flag on this season after trading Mookie Betts and David Price.
Thus, the American League East division race figures to come down to just two teams: the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. It is sure to be fascinating between two teams that are polar opposites. One is a high-payroll team with power bats and an explosive offense. The other is a more economically-strapped team built around dominant starting pitching and a lights-out bullpen.
Throughout the month we will be previewing every division in Major League Baseball. In this article, we take a look at the two-team race to win the AL East division and choose our best bet of the bunch. And check out of consensus odds to win the AL East.
Odds to win the American League East Division (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
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The Case for the New York Yankees
Oddsmakers love the Yankees to win the American League East, as their -323 odds are second-highest in any division. The Yankees have been on the cusp of a breakthrough for the last three seasons. They have averaged 98 wins per year and made it to the ALCS in two of those years. They have an outstanding blend of veterans and youth, and a calming presence in manager Aaron Boone who appears well-suited to navigate these uncertain times.
Perhaps the one missing piece for the Yankees has been a reliable ace at the top of the rotation. That problem was solved after the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a nine-year $324 million contract. Cole has not lost a regular-season start since May 22 of last year. He also set a record last year with 11 consecutive games with double-digit strikeouts, crushing the previous record of eight.
Behind Cole, the Yankees can trust veterans James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ to anchor the rotation. Though Luis Severino was lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery, the Yankees get back promising youngster Jordan Montgomery who missed all of last year for the same reason.
However, perhaps the Yankees’ biggest strength in a shortened season is their bullpen. Aaron Boone has shown a willingness to rely on anywhere from three to six relievers to close out games. With every regular-season game being so important, look for Boone to employ a similar strategy, especially while the starting pitchers get stretched out early in the season.
All this talk about the Yankees pitching, and we have not even touched on their offense. Almost everyone is back for a lineup that finished second with 306 home runs and first with 943 runs scored. In a year where slugger Giancarlo Stanton played just 18 games, those offensive numbers are simply staggering.
The Case for the Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays may have the most complete pitching staff in all of baseball. Their starting rotation is headlined by one of the most talented trios in Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. Rays starters finished fourth overall with a 3.64 ERA and sixth with a 17.6 WAR.
If one thinks the Yankees have a great bullpen, statistically the Rays bullpen is even better. Tampa’s bullpen led of all baseball in ERA and WAR last year, while also throwing the most innings. Between Chaz Roe, Colin Poche, Oliver Drake, and company, they throw a power arm after power arm at you.
Because of their overall pitching, the Rays appear the best suited to navigate a shortened season. They have plenty of depth in the starting rotation behind their “big three†if anyone were to test positive for coronavirus. In addition, many of their bullpen arms can pitch multiple innings. In a season with very few off days, this factor is very important as it gives them the flexibility to give more pitchers more days off.
Do not sleep on the Rays offense either. They added Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo who figures to slot in as their everyday DH. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is coming off an All-Star campaign while also finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, their outfield of Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfrow are all outstanding defenders who can provide pop in the lineup.
Conclusion
The Rays enter 2020 as an overlooked and undervalued team, even after winning 96 games last year. They gave Houston all they could handle in the ALDS and are looking to take the next step just like the Yankees.
For as strong as the Yankees appear, they have too many question marks to have such a steep price tag to win the division. It remains to be seen if Masahiro Tanaka is affected by being hospitalized after being hit by a line drive. The Yankees need Tanaka to pitch well, considering they cannot count on consistent production from JA Happ or Jordan Montgomery at the back end of the rotation. Happ and Montgomery project to make roughly 40% of the team’s starts. That is a large chunk of the season and one the Yankees cannot afford to play mediocre baseball through.
In addition, the Yankees have been hit hard by the coronavirus thus far. While D.J. Lemahieu’s positive test may not affect him during the season, Aroldis Chapman’s figures to. The Yankees have already said Chapman may miss their opening series against the Nationals. If he does, their deep bullpen gets much shorter with his absence.
The Rays are not only a great value play but are the more trusted team entering 2020. They have the edge over the Yankees in starting pitching and in the bullpen. While they cannot match New York’s offensive firepower, they were still good enough to win 96 games a year ago. A shortened season tilts the division in favor of the Rays, making the +330 odds an absolute steal.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays to win the American League East (+330)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.