MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win the NL Central (2020)
When placing futures wagers, bettors likely expect a decent payout in return for a long-term wager. In some divisions in baseball like the National League West or American League East, the odds on the favorites are so steep that bettors are left to decide if the price is worthy of such a bet.
In the NL Central, bettors are treated to the best odds of any division. There has been a different winner of the NL Central each of the last three years. Can the Cardinals break that trend and repeat as division champs, or will another contender steal their crown?
The perceived four-team race is expected to be so tight that the co-favorites have odds of +240. Thus, if you can find an edge in separating these teams you are in line for a nice payout.
Throughout the month we have been previewing every division in Major League Baseball. In this article, we take a look at all teams’ odds to win the NL Central division and choose our best bet of the bunch. You can also find our consensus odds to win the NL Central here.
Odds to Win the 2020 National League Central (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
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Chicago Cubs (+240)
The Chicago Cubs endured a disappointing 2019 season as they missed the playoffs for the first time in four years. As a result, manager Joe Maddon was fired and was replaced by a first-time manager and former Cub David Ross.
Ross inherits the most veteran club in the division and one that should make it easier to navigate an unusual season. Kyle Hendricks was named the team’s opening day starter and will be followed by veterans Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. Including Jose Quintana, all stayed relatively healthy in 2019 as each starter made at least 30 starts. In addition to staying healthy, their starters ranked in the top 10 in ERA last year, which is a good recipe for navigating a shortened season. Chicago’s bullpen was also strong, as their relievers’ ERA ranked eighth in the majors and second in the division.
The Cubs are waiting anxiously for word on first basemen Anthony Rizzo’s MRI news. Rizzo felt discomfort due to back spasms recently and there is a chance he could start the year on the IL. While Chicago’s lineup remains mostly intact from last year, they do not have much depth at many positions. Thus, if injuries piled up or the coronavirus started affecting the team, the Cubs could be in serious trouble.
St. Louis Cardinals (+240)
Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals won their first division title since 2015. They then “upset†the Braves in the divisional round before succumbing to the eventual champion Washington Nationals in the NLCS.
Just like last season, the Cardinals recipe will be very simple: win games with dominant pitching. St. Louis has the deepest rotation in the division and one of the most dominant staffs in all of baseball. Jack Flaherty finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting while Dakota Hudson also received votes for Rookie of the Year. Outside of them, Miles Mikolas and Carlos Martinez are in the primes of their careers while veteran Adam Wainwright’s experience is invaluable.
The Cardinals edged the Cubs in most pitching categories for best in the division last year. Cardinals starters ranked fifth in the majors in ERA while their bullpen’s ERA ranked sixth. If they continue to pitch like they did last year, a repeat divisional title is likely.
St. Louis is considered an “under-the-radar favorite†because they do not have the same “pop†in their lineup as other teams in the division. Putting Matt Carpenter in the everyday DH role makes room for youngster Tommy Edman to play more at third base. Marcell Ozuna’s 29 home runs are gone, putting more pressure on Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong to produce in the middle of the lineup.
Cincinnati Reds (+275)
If division titles were given out for offseason success, the Cincinnati Reds would be your NL Central winners. The Reds made many big splashes in the offseason, none bigger than adding the bats of Nicholas Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Joey Votto will look to bounce back from a disappointing season where he hit just .261 with 15 home runs. In addition, third baseman Eugenio Suarez is a dark horse MVP candidate if the rest of the lineup performs like they are expected. Suarez comes into 2020 on the heels of a 49 home run and 103 RBI season.
Cincinnati’s most underrated strength may be at the top of their rotation. If Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo can match their impressive 2019 campaigns, they along with a full year from Trevor Bauer make a solid top-three. They will look for more consistent production from their bullpen, especially closer Raisel Iglesias who went 3-12 with a 4.16 ERA.
Milwaukee Brewers (+300)
The Brewers enter 2020 with the fourth-worst odds to win the division, despite finishing just two games back of the first-place Cardinals last year. Milwaukee had a 3-0 lead on the Nationals in the Wild Card game before allowing four unanswered runs. Can they move past that crushing loss and carry momentum into 2020?
Milwaukee’s offense will look a bit different this year. All-star Yasmani Grandal is replaced behind the plate by Omar Narvaez who had a breakout season with the Mariners last year. In addition, former Oakland and Toronto third baseman Eric Sogard will replace Mike Moustakas while Justin Smoak takes over for Eric Thames at first base.
Milwaukee is also listed below some other contenders in the division since their pitching rates behind both the Cubs and the Cardinals. Brewers starters ranked 14th in ERA and their bullpen ERA ranked 18th. Thus, outside of all-star Josh Hader, Milwaukee’s set-up men struggled mightily. For the Brewers to get over the hump and capture the division crown, they will have to pitch better from top to bottom.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+5000)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to win just 25.5 games while carrying odds of -5000 (according to BetMGM) to miss the playoffs. Thus, one’s money is better spent taking a stab at any of the other four teams to win the division.
Conclusion
The National Central division race is sure to be a fascinating one in 2020. Any of the four teams can make a rightful claim to be the favorites. However, many of these contenders also have major flaws. The Cubs’ lack of depth and new managerial change could be too much to overcome. The Cincinnati Reds flashy offseason moves did not win them any games just yet. They need to prove they can mesh well as a unit before warranting a bet to win the division. Lastly, the Milwaukee Brewers lost too much firepower in their lineup to be taken seriously.
Thus, the best bet in the National League Central is the team that has always been a model of consistency. The St. Louis Cardinals are not the “sexiest†team, but they do what it takes to win ballgames. Every year it seems the Cardinals fly under-the-radar. In a year dominated by juiced balls and the home run, the Cardinals played an effective means of “small ball†to find success last year. The Cardinals have a roster filled with consummate professionals and veteran leaders. Isn’t that exactly the thing you need to get through an unusual and difficult season?
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals to win the National League Central (+240)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.