MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win NL East (2020)
In 2019, the National League East was the most balanced division in baseball. It was the only division to feature four teams with .500 or better records. In addition, it was the second-closest division race as the margin of victory between first and second place was just four games.
Though the Atlanta Braves won the division for the second straight year, it was the Washington Nationals who had the last laugh. Washington overcame a 19-31 record to storm back and earn a Wild Card berth. From there, their starting pitching carried them to the franchise’s first-ever World Series title.
If the Nationals want a chance to repeat, they cannot afford another slow start this season. With just 60 games to decide playoff spots, the National League East figures to be as competitive as ever.
Throughout the month we will be previewing every division in Major League Baseball. In this article, we take a look at all teams’ odds to win the NL East division and choose our best bet of the bunch. You can find our consensus odds to win the NL East here.
Odds to Win the 2020 National League East (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
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Atlanta Braves (+180)
Atlanta Braves fans hope the worst part of COVID-19 in their locker room is behind them. First basemen Freddie Freeman tested positive a couple weeks ago and was open to the public about how severe his symptoms were. His experience seemed to spook some, as teammate and former All-Star Nick Markakis chose to opt-out of the season. As a result of the Markakis news, Atlanta signed Yasiel Puig for depth. However, his contract was voided after testing positive for the coronavirus. Thus, newly acquired Marcell Ozuna should be the full-time DH.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has also received bad news before the season started. Newly signed Will Smith is out indefinitely after testing positive for the coronavirus. In addition, Cole Hamels has been battling triceps tendinitis. He was already set to miss opening day because of shoulder issues, so it remains to be seen how much longer he will be out.
However, if there is any team equipped to overcome injuries and handle the demands of a shortened season, it is the Braves. Atlanta will now turn to pitchers like Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Tucker Davidson at the start of the season. They will slot in behind ace Mike Soroka as well as Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz.
One other advantage the Braves seem to have in a shortened season is their youth. With 60 games to play and just six days off, there will not be a lot of rest to go around. Thus, a lineup bolstered by youngsters in Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson that figure to play every day gives Atlanta an edge.
Washington Nationals (+240)
One fear many bettors have with betting on a World Series champion the next year is will there be a hangover? However, the Nationals have other concerns heading into 2020.
They could not compete (or at least were not willing to) with the demands for free agent Anthony Rendon. Now as a member of the Angels, a huge bat is left out of the middle of the lineup. Between that and Ryan Zimmerman opting out of the season, the Nationals do not figure to have much “pop†outside of Juan Soto.
There is also a school of thought that in a shortened season, starting pitching will be de-emphasized and teams will rely more on their bullpens. However, I am sure the Nationals feel confident about trotting out Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin for 3/5 of the season. In addition, the shortened season should help their arms as all logged heavy innings last year to make up for a subpar bullpen.
With 40 of the Nationals 60 games coming against the NL East, they have a good chance to win the division given that they had a 44-32 record against the division last year.
New York Mets (+325)
The New York Mets biggest strength heading into the shortened season was one of the best starting rotations in baseball. However, that area of their team is now facing some serious questions. Noah Syndergaard was already scheduled to miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Now, ace Jacob deGrom left his last simulated start due to back tightness. Though an MRI came back clean, the Mets cannot afford to have their ace miss any action or be compromised for any of his starts.
The Mets figure to be one of the teams that benefit most from the universal DH rule. If Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, he figures to be the perfect candidate most days. However, the rule also provides them flexibility with older players like Robinson Cano as well.
New York’s chances in 2020 rest heavily on the performance of their bullpen. The Mets’ bullpen finished 26th in ERA after getting a subpar year out of Edwin Diaz. The Mets signed four-time All-Star Dellin Betances to a one-year deal. If he and Diaz bounce back and return to All-Star form, New York’s ceiling is a division title.
Philadelphia Phillies (+325)
The Phillies entered 2019 with tremendous optimism after they signed free agent Bryce Harper. However, their 81-81 record could be considered one of the league’s biggest disappointments.
Philadelphia parted ways with manager Gabe Kapler after two short years. They now turn to former Manager of the Year and World Series champion Joe Girardi to right the ship.
Girardi has a lot of talent to work with. Harper should be more comfortable in year two, and Andrew McCutchen is fully healthy from the get-go. In addition, the Phillies signed shortstop Didi Gregorius who is coming off a down year with the Yankees but that may have been a product of lingering issues from Tommy John surgery.
The Phillies also added depth to their starting pitching after signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year deal. Wheeler has had a productive last couple of years, going 23-15 with a 3.65 ERA in that span. He gives Philadelphia a solid No. 2 option and should blend well with ace Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta.
Miami Marlins (+15000)
The Miami Marlins are rightfully tagged as longshots to win the NL East. They still are trying to get out from under letting stars like Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich go, and it may be a long while until they are competitive.
Conclusion
Though the NL East sets up to be a four-team race, hardly anyone is talking about the Philadelphia Phillies. They may not have the star power in their rotation like the Nationals or Mets, or the depth of the Braves, but it is still a solid staff that got better with the addition of Zack Wheeler. In addition, the Phillies may have the most fearful lineup in the division. Jay Bruce gives them a great DH candidate and J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura continue to make strides. If the Phillies can get solid bounce-back years from Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, and Didi Gregorius, a division title is well within reach for a team this talented. That is especially true now that they have a much more competent and qualified manager.
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies to win the National League East (+325)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.