MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win NL MVP (2020)
With less than two weeks until the start of the 2020 MLB season, it is a great time to look at options for futures bets. We have already shared our picks to win each league’s pennant. Over the next couple of weeks, we at BettingPros will be releasing our best bets for every division winner. In addition, we will share our views on a number of different player props.
In this article, we focus on our best bet and value play for the National League Most Valuable Player award. With a bet like this, one might want to wait until closer to the season starts as every day it seems a new player opts out. However, we are taking this opportunity to get ahead of the game before the odds change drastically with new news.
Here is a look at BetMGM’s odds to win the 2020 National League Most Valuable Player Award. And here are our consensus odds for the 2020 NL MVP.
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Odds to Win the 2020 National League Most Valuable Player
Best Bet: Bryce Harper (+2000)
With every sports bet you make, it is important to shop around at various sportsbooks to find the best odds. At FanDuel, Harper’s odds to win the NL MVP are +1300. At DraftKings, his odds are +1800. Therefore, we already feel good about using BetMGM for this bet as +2000 is a great value for a player of Harper’s caliber.
Since Bryce Harper’s MVP campaign of 2015, he has not finished higher than 12th in MVP voting. Some may view him as a “one-year wonderâ€, but the fact is Harper’s numbers have not waned as dramatically as people think.
Harper’s first year in Philadelphia was widely viewed as a disappointment. He was left off of MVP ballots despite hitting 35 home runs and driving in 114 runs. That is a testament to today’s “juiced ball†era as those stats were not enough to wow MVP voters. If the Phillies had been better, Harper would likely have received more attention. However, they struggled to an 81-81 record and a fourth-place finish in the NL East.
In a 60-game shortened season, more players have the potential to get hot and put themselves in the MVP conversation. Harper is a prime candidate, as he has always been able to hit home runs in bunches. He is historically good at the start of seasons. In 179 career games in March and April, Harper has hit 47 home runs and driven in 132 runs. In addition, his 1.025 OPS rivals the 1.109 OPS that led the league in his MVP year of 2015.
The Phillies are projected to be in the mix with the Braves, Nationals and Mets for the NL East crown. They will look to new manager Joe Girardi to get them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Should a prominent franchise like the Phillies end their nine-year playoff drought, Harper will certainly be a big reason why and would likely garner the attention of many MVP voters.
Philadelphia projects to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the National League, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Harper to drive in more runs. Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox which will always inflate their hitters’ home run numbers more than the average ballpark. Plus, Harper has the added motivation of seeing his former team win the World Series the first year after he departed. At +2000 odds, that value should make bettors feel very comfortable betting on a former MVP.
Best bets to win 2020 American League MVP >>
Best Value Bet: Eugenio Suarez (+5000)
The Cincinnati Reds are a trendy pick to emerge as contenders in the NL Central. The additions of Nicholas Castellanos and Mike Moustakas deepens a lineup that finished 25th in runs scored last year. However, their prior lack of run production was no fault of Eugenio Suarez. Over the last two seasons, he has hit 83 home runs and driven in 207 runs. He finished 18th and 15th respectively in MVP voting despite his team not finishing higher than fourth in the division.
Suarez is as close to a lock as it comes as far as being able to stay healthy. He has played in at least 156 games in three of the last four seasons. Thus, being on the field for all 60 games this season should not be an issue. He had shoulder surgery in January but has since had plenty of time to rehab and should not be affected once the season starts.
Cincinnati is another team that plays in a hitter-friendly park. With more protection in the lineup and the chance for the Reds to be much better than year’s past, it is a great opportunity for Suarez to catch the eye of MVP voters. He has been trending up in MVP voting to begin with, and he is a great value play to take home the award this year.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.