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MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win NL West (2020)

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The decision whether or not to make a futures bet on the winner of the National League West division likely comes down to one thing: is the Dodgers’ price worth it? That is, this is a tricky decision if you believe the Dodgers are a shoo-in to win their eighth consecutive division title. Will the shortened 60-game season level the playing field and make the division up for grabs? If so, which of their rivals is waiting to knock the Dodgers off?

Throughout the month we have been previewing every division in Major League Baseball. In this article, we take a look at all teams’ odds to win the NL West division and choose our best bet of the bunch. You can also view our consensus odds for the NL West championship here.

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Odds to Win the 2020 National League West (odds courtesy of BetMGM)

TEAM ODDS
Los Angeles Dodgers -667
San Diego Padres +700
Arizona Diamondbacks +1000
Colorado Rockies +4000
San Francisco Giants +5000

 

The Case for the Dodgers (-667)

At odds of -667, the Dodgers are more than double the price of the next biggest division favorite. You know you are a dominant team when David Price, a pitcher who is good enough to be many teams’ ace, opts out of the season, and your odds to win the division and the World Series do not change.

The lack of change in odds given this news is in large part due to the depth of Los Angeles’s starting pitching. The Dodgers have two other pitchers in Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler who would also be the aces of many staff around the league. The duo are both in the top-six shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young award, according to BetMGM.

Speaking of awards, a pair of Dodgers are also in the top-six to take home the National League Rookie of the Year award. Gavin Lux is the favorite with odds of +250, as he has an excellent opportunity given that he will be the Dodgers everyday second baseman. In addition, Dustin May will round out the Dodgers starting rotation and carries odds of +1000.

Lastly on the awards front, newly acquired Mookie Betts is the favorite with odds of +500 to take home the NL MVP. Though the Dodgers lineup has been relentless the past seven seasons, one thing they have consistently lacked is a proven lead-off hitter. With Betts at the top of the lineup, it deepens an order that features former All-Stars Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson and A.J. Pollock.

In all, the Los Angeles Dodgers have no holes. They have dominant starting pitching, a relentless offense, depth at every position and an outstanding bullpen with many pitchers who have experience closing games.

The Case for the Others

Lumping the NL West’s four remaining teams into an “others” category speaks to the dominance of the Dodgers. Is there a contender from this group that can challenge the Dodgers?

The most likely candidates are the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego’s ace might not be a household name, but Chris Paddack burst onto the scene in 2019 with filthy stuff. However, the rest of the rotation behind him is largely unproven. Dinelson Lamet has made just 35 career starts while projected No. 3 starter Garrett Richards has made just 31 starts in the last four years combined. Keep an eye on if the Padres promote highly-touted prospect Mackenzie Gore to the big leagues this year.

San Diego’s best chance to compete for a division title is likely to out-slug its opponents. They have a deep lineup headlined by Manny Machado but are also counting on key production from Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The most enticing value play in the division is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They finished second in the division last year (albeit 21 games back) and made a couple of underrated moves in the offseason. They plucked Madison Bumgarner from within the division and he instantly becomes their No. 1 starter. In addition, Starling Marte comes over from Pittsburgh and will man centerfield from Opening Day.

Diamondbacks pitchers finished a respectable 12th with a 4.25 ERA. If they get consistent production from the other starters outside of Bumgarner and Robbie Ray, they could pose a problem for the Dodgers in a shortened season.

Conclusion

In the last seven consecutive years that the Dodgers won the NL West, their margin over the second-place team was fewer than four games just once. Over 162 games their overall talent has consistently risen to the top, but in a 60-game season there is a feel that “anything can happen.”

There is no doubt that Los Angeles is the most talented team in the division, and should make it eight straight NL West titles. However, they do not warrant a bet at their current price with so much uncertainty heading into this season.

PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL West (-667), but pass on their current price

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.