MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (6/7)
The weekend is finally upon us. I say we get things started with a few longshot home run prop bets. I've sifted through the statistics and matchups and narrowed in on four players who are primed to touch’em all tonight.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryan Mountcastle (+475) & Gunnar Henderson (+310)
The Orioles have dropped two straight games, and they'll look to turn things around as they open up a series with the Rays. Tonight's pitching matchup pits Cole Irvin against Aaron Civale. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL.
Personally, I thought Civale was set up to thrive with the move to Tampa in the middle of the 2023 campaign. That hasn't been the case as the 28-year-old has posted a 5.37 ERA (72nd) and 1.34 WHIP (60th) this season. He's conceded at least one home run in six of his last seven starts. The right-hander enters with a 1.60 HR/9 rate and 14.9% HR/FB rate, which are the sixth- and fifth-highest amongst today's starters, respectively.
Civale is tasked with slowing down a Baltimore offense that leads the MLB in home runs with 95. Nineteen of those big flies belong to Gunnar Henderson (second), while 10 have come off the bat of Ryan Mountcastle (32nd). The duo has done damage against Civale in the past. The budding superstar shortstop is 2-for-4 (.500) against him with a home run while Mountcastle is 6-for-9 (.667) with two bombs and a double. The team as a whole is slashing .333/.355/.717 against Civale, so the O's could run up the score in this one. Let's ride with Henderson and Mountcastle to go yard.
Nolan Arenado (+330)
The Cardinals dropped last night's series opener to the Rockies (3-2), marking their third defeat in the last four games. They'll try to bounce back tonight when they send Lance Lynn to the bump. Colorado counters with Austin Gomber in this National League clash, which is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
Gomber's set to make his 12th start of the season tonight. The 30-year-old hurler has looked decent this year, especially when you factor in that five of his starts have come at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. The southpaw enters at 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA (22nd) and 1.18 WHIP (41st) over 61.2 innings of work. If you had to point to a weak spot, it'd be his inability to keep the ball in the field of play. Gomber owns a 1.61 HR/9 rate and a 15.1% HR/FB mark.
I think this is a great spot to play Nolan Arenado to deposit one into the bleachers tonight. The third baseman got off to an underwhelming start to the year, but he's found his power recently, hitting three of his six home runs over the last eight games. He's taken Gomber yard in the past, as he's 3-for-12 (.250) against him with a bomb and a double. Let's lock in Arenado to go deep against his former team.
Yordan Alvarez (+175)
The Astros are just 28-35 entering the weekend, so they have some work to do if they want to climb back into the playoff picture. They'll try to make up some ground in the standings this weekend as they take on the lowly Angels. The series opener is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. We have a pitching matchup between Framber Valdez and Griffin Canning.
Houston has found a ton of success against Canning, slashing .300/.380/.557 against him over 70 at-bats. Specifically, Yordan Alvarez has had his number, going 4-for-9 (.444) against him with a pair of moonshots. The star slugger's rapidly making his way back into the American League home run race, as he's blasted three bombs this month, taking him to 12 on the year. Alvarez has posted a 1.424 OPS in five games this month.
Meanwhile, Canning has been a below-average starter in 2024, coming in at 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA (63rd) and 1.37 WHIP (64th). His HR/9 rate is 1.56, which is the sixth-highest amongst today's starters. The right-hander has allowed five nukes in his last four starts (22.2 IP), which equates to a HR/9 rate of 1.99. Let's take Alvarez to touch’em all tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Logan Allen (1.84, 58.2 IP)
- Cody Poteet (1.64, 11.0 IP)
- Austin Gomber (1.61, 61.2 IP)
- Michael King (1.60, 73.0 IP)
- Aaron Civale (1.60, 62.0 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: