MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (7/27)
Aaron Judge might be out for a couple of weeks, but there are still plenty of other hitters who can smash home runs while he’s out. I’ve added three home run props for today’s games and shared them below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Jacob Wilson (+900)
Against his last 11 lefties, Jacob Wilson has smashed a .273 ISO and wOBA of .353 with only a 9.1% strikeout rate. He’s hit 40% of fly balls and will now take on Colton Gordon of the Astros, who completely stinks against righties.
The left-handed starter has allowed a .268 ISO and a wOBA of .404 to his last 65 right-handed batters. He’s also given up more fly balls than ground balls induced to righties over the previous month. In addition, Gordon has struck out just 12.3% of righties and has allowed a 15.4% barrel percentage. He’s also added only 6.7% of swinging strikes against righties and 42.3% of hard contact.
Wilson is an intriguing option, especially at +900 odds.
Corey Seager (+310)
Corey Seager has slugged a .367 ISO and wOBA of .475 against his last 61 righties. The lefty hitter has struck out only 21.3% of the time and has hit 70.3% of hard contact with a 24.3% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll face Bryce Elder of the Atlanta Braves. Elder has faced 35 lefties over the last month and has allowed a .179 ISO and wOBA of .353. He’s falling behind against lefties a lot. Ultimately, he’s struck out 11.4% of lefties and has walked 17.1% of lefties over the last 30 days. Plus, he’s allowed 52% of hard contact and 32% of fly balls to lefties in that time.
Finally, Elder has allowed a 12% barrel percentage and has earned just 6% of swinging strikes. There’s a good chance Seager gets ahold of one, especially when he gets some good hitter’s counts when up at the plate.
Randy Arozarena (+370)
Randy Arozarena has hit a .375 ISO and wOBA of .419 against his last 79 righties as a right-handed batter. He’s struck out 30.4% of the time, but he’s also up there to swing the bat. He’s walked just 1.3% of the time over the last month against righties.
The strikeouts are certainly concerning. They’re super high, but he’s taking on Kyle Hendricks, who has struck out just 15.9% of righties this season. That number hasn’t even changed much over the last month. Plus, he’s allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .381 to 201 righties this season. Hendricks has given up more line drives to righties over the last month. He’s also induced fewer ground balls over the previous month against righties.
The veteran right-hander has also added just 7% of swinging strikes and has given up a 9.4% barrel percentage to 201 righties this season. Arozarena isn’t Cal Raleigh, but he’s been much hotter against righties than Raleigh has over the last month. Therefore, let’s take advantage and take Arozarena to go yard at +370 odds.