MLB Home Run Props, Bets & Picks: Tuesday (6/3)
Following an abbreviated seven-game slate in the MLB on Monday, the league returns with a full 15-game schedule tonight. I'm heading to the prop sheet to get some skin in the game, and below you'll find my four favorite MLB home run props and bets. Here's who I believe is primed to touch 'em all tonight on the diamond.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Team View
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MLB Home Run Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+170) & Ben Rice (+310)
Let's pick it up in the Big Apple, where the Yankees (36-22) return home after a successful 6-4 West Coast road trip. They'll open up a series against the Guardians (32-26), and tonight's pitching matchup features a battle between Tanner Bibee and Carlos Rodon. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
My plays are somewhat chalky tonight, but we'll start with Aaron Judge, who's 21 tanks are the third-most in the MLB. He also leads the league in both average (.391) and OPS (1.248), while ranking fourth in RBI (50). Judge homered four times during their nine-game road trip, and interestingly, he's gone yard in three of his last four series-opening games.
I'll also lock in Ben Rice, who homered on Sunday Night Baseball against the Dodgers last time out. He has two big flies in his last four games, bringing him to 12 home runs (22nd) on the season. Judge is homering once every 10.5 at-bats (third), while Rice's home runs come once every 14.3 at-bats (10th).
The duo will be looking to leave the yard against Cleveland's Tanner Bibee (3.86 ERA), who has struggled with the longball this season. The right-hander has a 1.71 HR/9 rate, which is the sixth-highest mark amongst tonight's starting pitchers. Rice is 1-for-3 (.333) against him with a home run, while Judge is 3-for-6 (.500) with a double. I'll play both of the Bronx Bombers to go deep at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Kyle Schwarber (+260)
After getting caught on the wrong end of the brooms against the Brewers over the weekend, the Phillies (36-23) pack their bags and head north to take on the Blue Jays (31-28) in an interleague series. Cristopher Sanchez gets the nod for the Phils in the opener, while the Jays counter with Bowden Francis. This contest gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
The month of June belongs to Kyle Schwarber. Throughout his career, he's hit more home runs (61) in June, while the 30-day period has also seen him post his best OPS (.932). Schwarbs' 19 bombs this season are the fourth-most in the MLB, while his .983 OPS is the fifth-highest. He's launching home runs once every 11.3 at-bats, which is fourth in the Majors.
Schwarber draws a matchup against Toronto's Bowden Francis, who hasn't been overpowering this season with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The right-hander owns an inflated 2.44 HR/9 rate and a 19.7% HR/FB mark. The Philadelphia slugger is 2-for-3 (.667) against him with a solo home run. Give me Schwarber to touch 'em all.
Eugenio Suarez (+450)
I'll wrap up my betting card in the ATL, where the downward-trending Diamondbacks (28-31) take on the Braves (27-31). Zac Gallen will toe the rubber for the Snakes, while the Braves opt for Spencer Strider. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
In my opinion, there's not a ton of value to be found in the home run betting market nowadays (just look at the Judge +170 price). However, getting a +450 payout to back Eugenio Suarez, who's fifth in home runs (16) this season, seems like great value. Geno just homered on Sunday against the Nationals, giving him two bombs in his last six games. He owns the seventh-best home run rate, going deep once every 13.3 at-bats.
The D-Backs haven't found much success against Spencer Strider (4.50 ERA), but one guy who has is Suarez. He's 2-for-2 (1.000) against him with a double. Strider brings in a modest 1.29 HR/9 rate, and he's surrendered one home run in two of his three outings in 2025. I'll take a +450 flier on Suarez to blast one tonight.