MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks: Sunday (Dodgers vs. Mets)
One-game slates are extremely hard to pluck off a home run prop, especially in the playoffs. As mentioned yesterday, though, with the right research, you can put yourself in a good situation. That is exactly what happened when we cashed in on Juan Soto at +525 odds.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mookie Betts (+500)
After going 0-for-11 in last year’s playoff, Mookie Betts has broken out of his postseason slump and become the Dodgers’ hottest hitter.
During this year’s postseason play, Betts is batting .300, hitting three doubles and four home runs.
With the Mets starting Sean Manaea, this sets up as an excellent matchup for the Dodgers superstar as he has more exposure to Manaea than any other Dodger (34 at-bats) and has had real success. Over those 34 at-bats, Betts is batting .294 with two doubles, two triples and three home runs.
Manaea relies on his fastball and sinker when facing opposing right-handed hitters, throwing each nearly 27% of the time, with an occasional changeup mixed in.
Mookie Betts has an ISO of .236 against the fastball, .227 against the sinker and .170 against the changeup. Eleven of his 19 home runs have come on those three pitches, including eight on the sinker alone.
It is not known how long Sean Manaea will go, so Betts may only get one or two at-bats against the right-hander, but the good thing to remember is Betts has a good track record against many Mets relievers as well.
Looking at New York’s most used relievers this postseason (Jose Butto, Edwin Diaz, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett), I found Betts is a combined 8-for-26 (.307) with three home runs against them.
It shouldn’t matter who is on the mound; Betts is in a good spot the entire night.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: