MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (6/12)
We’re looking to start the weekend off with a bang. I’ve added my top three favorite MLB home run props for tonight’s full slate. There are many new series and some intriguing matchups. Let’s attack.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter (+370)
Kerry Carpenter has a .400 ISO and a wOBA of .439 against his last 27 right-handed pitchers. The lefty slugger has also hit 38.9% of fly balls and 61.1% of hard contact. In addition, Carpenter has smacked an 11.1% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Carpenter is set to face Tanner Bibee of the Guardians, who has allowed a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .348 to his last 65 lefties. He’s given up 36% of fly balls and an 18% barrel rate to lefties over the last 30 days.
Bibee has even given up 56% of hard contact and has struck out just 16.9% of lefties over the last 30 days.
This is a terrific spot for Carpenter to blast one.
Nolan Arenado (+490)
Over the last month, Nolan Arenado has smashed a .267 ISO and a wOBA of .385 against his last 2o lefties. Arenado has struck out just 15% of the time and has hit 33.3% of fly balls with a team-best 75% hard-hit rate against lefties over the last 30 days.
Arenado will face Nick Lodolo of the Reds, who has given up a .278 ISO and a wOBA of .365 to his last 87 righties. Lodolo has allowed a 12.1% barrel rate and 34.5% of fly balls to righties over the last month.
Lodolo has also struck out just 20.7% of righties and has added only 10.1% of swinging strikes against righties during this stretch.
Back Arenado to go deep.
Jake Bauers (+430)
Jake Bauers has two home runs over the last five games. He’ll look to add at least one more in tonight’s game against the Phillies.
Bauers will take on Andrew Painter of the Phillies, who has given up a .238 ISO and a wOBA of .407 to his last 70 lefties. The young righty has struck out only 14.3% of lefties over the last month and has given up 35.2% of fly balls. He’s also allowed over 40% of hard contact to lefties.
Meanwhile, Jake Bauers has launched a .317 ISO and a wOBA of .432 against his last 74 righties. The lefty first baseman has added 79.5% of hard contact and a 23.1% barrel rate against righties. If Bauers gets a hold of one, he’s got a ton of potential against Painter.