MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (7/17)
After a fun All-Star Weekend, we’ve got a full 15-game slate on the schedule to fully start the second half of the season. Let’s go fire on some dingers. Here are three MLB home run props that I’m rolling with tonight.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Manny Machado (+350)
Manny Machado has hit a .328 ISO and a wOBA of .438 against his last 77 righties. In addition, he’s smacked with a 37 percent fly ball rate, a 52.2% hard contact rate, and has a team-best 15.2% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
He’ll battle a struggling Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals. Lugo has given up a .310 ISO and a wOBA of .408 to his last 33 righties. Those righties have hit a 12.5% barrel percentage. He’s also struck out righties just 18.2 percent of the time during that stretch.
Let’s ride with Machado to go yard.
Ty France (+500)
Since it’s the start of the second half of the season, many above-average pitchers are taking the hill. Therefore, we’ll want to take advantage of someone like Lugo, who has been abysmal against righties recently.
Ty France, for example, has hit a .235 ISO and a wOBA of .322 against righties over the last 30 days. He’s also boasts over a 27 percent fly ball rate and over 47 percent hard contact rate against righties. Ultimately, the Padres have a lot of potential against Lugo. Machado and France are the top two selections for me tonight.
Jordan Walker (+350)
Fresh off a Home Run Derby win earlier this week, you’ll want to consider Jordan Walker to hit a bomb tonight. He’s a right-handed batter, hitting a .236 ISO and a wOBA of .350 against his last 62 righties.
Meanwhile, he’s set to face Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, who has given up a .231 ISO and a wOBA of .406 to his last 48 righties. Kelly has allowed a 61 percent hard contact rate to righties during this time and has also allowed a 12.9% barrel percentage. Plus, he’s struck out below 21 percent of the righties he’s faced over the last 30 days, while walking over 12 percent.
Let’s see if Walker can continue his hot season in the second half.