MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (8/21)
We’re looking to start the weekend off with a bang. I’ve got three MLB home run props I’ll be firing on tonight! Consider tailing below!
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Luis Garcia (+450)
It sounds like the Blue Jays are going to pitch Spencer Arrighetti. He’s only thrown against nine batters over the last month. That said, he’s allowed a .174 ISO and a wOBA of .350 to 229 lefties this season when he was pitching for the Astros.
He struggled to get ahead in counts against lefties this season and also allowed nearly 30% of fly balls to lefties this year.
On the other hand, Luis Garcia has smoked a .256 ISO and a wOBA of .355 against his last 80 righties. Garcia, a lefty, has added over 25% of fly balls and 30% of line drives against righties in the last month. He’s also hit a team-best 19% barrel percentage against righties.
Ride it out with Garcia.
Pete Alonso (+300)
Pete Alonso has hit a .269 ISO and a wOBA of .449 against his last 75 righties as a right-handed batter. He’s hit nearly 30% of fly balls and a 20.4% barrel percentage against righties during this stretch.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Freddy Peralta of the Rays, who has allowed a .200 ISO and a wOBA of .413 to his last 30 righties faced as a right-handed pitcher. Peralta has struck out just 13.3% of righties and has given up over 38% of fly balls during that stretch.
Let’s see if Pete Alonso can take advantage.
Randy Arozarena (+430)
Randy Arozarena has hit a .200 ISO and a wOBA of .334 with only 15.8% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month. Additionally, he’s hit 31% of fly balls and a 48.3% hard-contact rate against lefties in the same time span.
He’s set to face Matt Boyd of the Cubs, who has allowed a .253 ISO and a wOBA of .356 to his last 96 righties as a left-handed pitcher. Boyd has allowed nearly 30% of fly balls and a 12.2% barrel percentage to righties in the last 30 days. He’s also struck out just 13.5% of righties during that time.
We’ll give Arozarena a shot! He’s already hit a homer earlier this week.