MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (8/7)
We’ve got a full slate of MLB games on the horizon. Additionally, we’ve got plenty of new series starting up tonight. That said, I’ve added a few MLB home run props that you’ll want to consider tailing tonight. Take a look below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wilyer Abreu (+360)
Wilyer Abreu has smacked four home runs in his last five games. Yet, he’s still +360 to hit a home run tonight.
He’s set to face Jack Perkins of the Athletics, who has allowed a .325 ISO and a wOBA of .357 to his last 44 lefties. Perkins has also given up over 48% of fly balls to lefties, along with a 13.8% barrel percentage during that same time frame. Meanwhile, Abreu has hit 40% of fly balls, 60% of hard contact, and a team-best 20% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
The Red Sox are hot, and Abreu is a very big reason why. Let’s take Abreu to hit a homer at +360 odds.
Alec Burleson (+450)
The Colorado Rockies are set to pitch Ryan Feltner tonight. The righty starter has allowed more walks than strikeouts against lefties over the last month. He’s also allowed a .325 ISO and a wOBA of .491 to his last 50 lefties, while allowing a 16.7% barrel percentage. Furthermore, Feltner has given up over 30% of fly balls and has added just 8.2% of swinging strikes against lefties.
Alec Burleson is one of the few lefties that has shown consistent power against righties in the St. Louis lineup. Burleson has hit a .180 ISO and a wOBA of .453 against righties in the last 30 days. He’s also hit a 73.2% hard contact rate and has a 16.3% barrel percentage against righties.
I’ll gladly roll with Burleson at +450 odds.
Jackson Merrill (+450)
It was a rough first half for Jackson Merrill. However, he’s starting to come around in the second half. In fact, over the last 30 days, Merrill has hit a .261 ISO and a wOBA of .371 against righties over the last month. He’s also hit more fly balls than ground balls against righties and has added a team-best 16.7% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Ronel Blanco of the Astros, who has already allowed a .278 ISO and a wOBA of .393 to his last 44 lefties. Those lefties have hit 53.8% of fly balls against Blanco. He’s also allowed an 11.5% barrel percentage to lefties.
I’ll give Merrill a chance at +450 tonight.