MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (9/11)
We’re back with three MLB home run props for tonight’s slate! Let’s build the bankroll to start the weekend! Join me below!
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andres Chaparro (+470)
Andres Chaparro has hit a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .475 against his last 29 lefties. The right-hander has smacked 70.6% of hard contact with an 11.8% barrel percentage. He’s also limited ground balls to 41.2% against lefties during that time.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Yusei Kikuchi of the Angels, who has allowed a .347 ISO and a wOBA of .394 to his last 56 righties. Those righties have hit 55% of hard contact with over 32% of line drives and a 12.5% barrel percentage. Chaparro has had a ton of success against lefties over the last month. There’s no reason he should stop tonight against Kikuchi, who, again, has been brutal against righties over the last month.
Back Chaparro to go deep tonight!
Eugenio Suarez (+630)
It hasn’t been the season Eugenio Suarez was hoping for. But he’s a pure power slugger who has odds of +630 to hit a home run against a right-handed pitcher tonight. Suarez has hit a .302 ISO and a wOBA of .374 against his last 74 righties and will face Dustin May of the Brewers tonight.
May has allowed a .286 ISO and a wOBA of .415 against his last 38 righties, while giving up a 13.3% barrel percentage. He’s kept his walks down, but he’s also allowed 30% of fly balls and has earned just 15.8% of strikeouts against righties during the last month.
Ultimately, Suarez has hit 35.6% of fly balls and has earned a 12.5% barrel percentage with 47.5% of hard contact against righties. Give Suarez a try!
Jordan Walker (+390)
Jordan Walker has slugged a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .398 against his last 35 lefties. He’s hit 33.3% fly balls and 66.7% of hard contact against lefties, while adding a 12.5% barrel percentage over the last month.
Tonight, he’ll compete against Anthony Kay of the White Sox, a lefty who has allowed a .275 ISO and a wOBA of .419 to his last 88 righties. Kay has allowed over 62% of hard contact and has added just 15.9% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. Better yet, Kay has allowed 27.3% of fly balls and really isn’t earning many swinging strikes against righties.
Walker has very good analytics against lefties over the last month, hitting above average in almost every advanced analytical stat in the last month against lefties. At +390, we’ll roll with Walker.