MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (9/18)
On Monday, we nailed multiple MLB home run props. We’re back again with another full weekend of picks. With a full slate of games, there’s a lot to work with. Check out the selections below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Smith (+830)
You can’t go wrong with Josh Smith at +830 to hit a homer. The left-hander has hit a .448 ISO and a wOBA of .481 against his last 37 righties. Additionally, he’s added 40% of fly balls and 35% of line drives, with 50% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate, over the last 30 days against righties.
Smith takes on Kumar Rocker of the Rangers, who has watched his last 75 lefties hit a .203 ISO and a wOBA of .327. Rocker has also allowed 32.1% of fly balls and struck out just over 21% of lefties in the last month.
Let’s roll with Smith, even if he’s batting at the bottom of the order.
Kody Clemens (+450)
Kody Clemens has a .327 ISO and a wOBA of .418 against his last 65 righties. He’s also socked 43.2% of fly balls during that time and has added an 18.2% barrel rate with 65.9% of hard contact against righties.
Tonight, Clemens will battle Grayson Rodriguez of the Angels, who has allowed a .222 ISO and a wOBA of .402 to his last 83 lefties. Rodriguez has given up 59.3% of hard contact and over 40% of fly balls to lefties in the last month.
This is a big spot for Clemens to go yard. He’s been the big power bat for the Twins this season. Let’s see if he can continue his power surge throughout the final portion of the season.
Heriberto Hernandez (+360)
The Padres are set to pitch Nick Pivetta tonight. The right-hander has struggled more against righties since returning from injury. He’s allowed a .214 ISO and a wOBA of .334 to his last 14 righties. Beyond that, he’s earned just 21.4% of strikeouts and has allowed an 18.2% barrel rate with 45.5% of fly balls.
Pivetta faces Heriberto Hernandez of the Marlins, who will be the No. 2 hitter for Miami. Hernandez has added a .205 ISO and a wOBA of .363 against his last 85 righties as a right-handed batter. He has a 49% hard-hit rate, an 8.2% barrel rate and a 26.5% fly-ball rate.
All of this checks out. Let’s take advantage of a rusty Pivetta and backHernandez to go yard at +360.