MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Friday (9/25)
We’ve got a 16-game slate in the MLB today. Let’s add some MLB home run props for tonight’s slate. The regular season is coming to a close, so we’ll want to take advantage of these slates while we can.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kevin McGonigle (+600)
Kevin McGonigle has a .221 ISO and a wOBA of .359 against his last 79 righties. Additionally, he’s struck out just 12.7% of the time and has hit over 30% of fly balls against righties in the last month.
Tonight, McGonigle will face righty Bubba Chandler of the Pirates, who has allowed his last 73 lefties to hit a .206 ISO and a wOBA of .346. Chandler has allowed a higher barrel rate than swinging strikes and has allowed nearly 46% of hard contact with almost 35% of fly balls to lefties.
McGonigle looks good analytically, especially at +600.
Ben Rice (+460)
Ben Rice has smacked a .338 ISO and a wOBA of .480 against his last 80 righties. He’s been super patient at the plate and has also hit 34.6% of fly balls with 51.9% of hard contact.
Rice is set to face righty Brandon Young of the Orioles, who has allowed a .286 ISO and a wOBA of .362 to his last 77 lefties. Those 77 lefties have hit 33.3% of fly balls with an 8.9% barrel rate.
Rice has a 13.5% barrel rate against righties in the last 30 days. With these numbers, you can’t go wrong with Rice at +460.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+420)
It has been a rough season for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has really struggled to hit for power, especially at home. However, he’s closing out the season strong.
Over the last month, Guerrero has a .364 ISO and a wOBA of .487 against lefties with only 12% strikeouts. He has also hit 36.8% of fly balls with 68.4% of hard contact. Beyond that, he’s added a 15.8% barrel rate and a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .353 against lefties in the last month.
Luckily for Guerreri, he’ll face lefty Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Lodolo has allowed a .273 ISO and a wOBA of .351 to his last 93 righties, while allowing 52.2% of hard contact and 31.3% of fly balls.
Consider Guerrero at +420 to hit one out of the yard today. At least he’s closing out the season well against lefties.