MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Guardians vs. Rays (Monday)
We’re headed to Game 6 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS). The Rays lead the Guardians 3-2 and are one win away from another World Series appearance. The Guardians haven’t announced a starter, but the Rays will roll with Freddy Peralta. Here’s a look at our top MLB home run props for Game 6 of the ALCS.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Ramirez (+710)
Jose Ramirez has a .279 ISO and a .452 wOBA against his last 49 righties. He’s also smashed 35.9% of fly balls against righties during that time, and has hit 46.2% of hard contact.
Tonight, Ramirez will face Freddy Peralta, who has struggled against lefties this season. Peralta allowed a .179 ISO and a .322 wOBA to 500 lefties this year. While he’s improved over the last couple of months, Peralta has still allowed 32.6% of fly balls to lefties in the last 30 days.
Peralta walked over 13% of lefties during that stretch. If he falls behind, Ramirez could take advantage.
Patrick Bailey (+980)
Patrick Bailey is a sneaky option at +980 odds. The switch-hitting catcher will hit left-handed against Freddy Peralta. He’s hit a .333 ISO and a wOBA of .413 against his last 38 righties. Additionally, he’s earned 27.3% of fly balls and a team-best 68.2% hard-hit rate against righties in the last month.
Again, Peralta has struggled against lefties, allowing a 9.3% barrel rate and over 30% of line drives in the last 30 days.
I’ll try Patrick Bailey in this spot.
Jonathan Aranda (+710)
The Guardians haven’t announced a starter. But Tanner Bibee will likely get the call. He has allowed a .233 ISO and a wOBA of .402 to his last 32 lefties. Plus, he’s allowed a 12.5% barrel rate to lefties, while earning only 18.8% of strikeouts.
Bibee has also allowed 29.2% of fly balls and 41.7% of hard contact to lefties in the last 30 days.
Bibee will face lefty Jonathan Aranda, who has added a .212 ISO against his last 35 righties. Aranda has hit almost 43% of fly balls and a team-best 76.2% hard-hit rate against righties. He also leads the team with a 14.3% barrel rate against righties in the last month.
As long as the Guardians pitch a righty against Aranda, he’s got potential.