MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Guardians vs. White Sox (Saturday)
We’re headed to Game 5 of the American League Division Series (ALDS) between the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians. Chicago and Cleveland won both road games. If that trend continues, the White Sox would move on. However, analytically, I’m liking the Guardians. Here are three MLB home run props for tonight’s ALDS Game 5 matchup.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jo Adell (+570)
Jo Adell hasn’t hit very well against righties in the last month, recording a .122 ISO and a .218 wOBA over the last 30 days. But he’ll likely be the only right-handed batter in Cleveland’s lineup tonight.
Adell has still hit 29% of fly balls and has added a 9.7% barrel rate with 54.8% of hard contact agaisnt righties in the last 30 days.
Adell and the Guardians will face Sean Burke of the White Sox, who has allowed a .344 ISO and a wOBA of .407 to his last 35 righties. Adell could enjoy success just based on Burke’s struggles against righties in the last few outings.
Travis Bazzana (+980)
Rookie Travis Bazzana has a .406 ISO and a wOBA of .460 against his last 40 righties. He’s a left-handed infielder who has struck out only 15% of the time against righties over the last month. He’s also smashed 30.8% of fly balls with an 11.5% barrel rate against righties.
Recently, Burke has been fantastic against lefties. However, he still allowed a .166 ISO to 448 lefties this season. Burke also allowed 30.4% of fly balls and 49.3% of hard contact to lefties throughout the year.
I’ll give Bazzana a try at +980.
Munetaka Murakami (+370)
Munetaka Murakami has been one of this season’s most enjoyable newcomers. Over the last month, the Japanese star has hit a .288 ISO and a .311 wOBA against righties.
There’s a strong chance he’ll strike out a couple of times against Gavin Williams tonight. But if he connects on one, you can forget it.
That said, Williams has allowed a .161 ISO to 773 batters this season. He’ll add a high number of strikeouts, but will also give up the long ball.
Meanwhile, Murakami has added 37.5% of fly balls and a 62.5% hard-hit rate against righties in the last 30 days. He’s even leading the team with a 29.2% barrel rate against righties in the last month.
I’ll ride with Murakami at +370 to launch one.